How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,518

Teams rated14,934

Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25

Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+

Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this

Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,915 matches

drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.

Rating gap	Matches	Drew	With odds	Drew (those)	Bookmaker's figure	Return if you bet every draw
0–24	67,226	27.39%	22,161	29.39%	28.79%	-1.08%
25–49	72,899	26.31%	21,925	28.62%	28.66%	-3.14%
50–74	79,097	25.02%	20,405	28.41%	28.34%	-2.77%
75–99	64,754	25.22%	18,710	28.04%	27.91%	-2.60%
100–149	86,852	25.25%	29,683	26.91%	26.93%	-3.11%
150–199	53,178	23.71%	20,326	25.50%	25.26%	-2.52%
200–299	49,422	20.56%	19,016	21.77%	22.31%	-5.79%
300+	22,487	13.95%	8,643	14.52%	16.00%	-12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,603 matches

drew How often each rating gap actually drew.

Rating gap	Matches	Drew	Drew (those)	Bookmaker's figure	Return if you bet every draw
0–24	5,168	27.44%	—	—	—
25–49	5,088	25.55%	—	—	—
50–74	5,107	26.87%	—	—	—
75–99	4,611	25.83%	—	—	—
100–149	8,292	24.60%	—	—	—
150–199	6,433	22.96%	—	—	—
200–299	8,407	20.01%	—	—	—
300+	6,497	12.37%	—	—	—

Top clubs by current rating

#	Team	Rating	Peak	Last match
1	GER · FC Bayern München	2,315	2,328	2026-09-18
2	ENG · Manchester City	2,253	2,331	2026-09-20
3	ENG · Arsenal	2,244	2,293	2026-09-19
4	ESP · Barcelona	2,209	2,243	2026-09-19
5	FRA · Paris Saint-Germain	2,154	2,231	2026-09-20
6	ESP · Real Madrid	2,139	2,237	2026-09-20
7	ITA · Inter Milan	2,127	2,202	2026-10-03
8	NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt	2,122	2,143	2026-10-01
9	ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion	2,103	2,103	2026-09-19
10	ENG · Liverpool	2,098	2,285	2026-09-20
11	GER · Borussia Dortmund	2,091	2,116	2026-09-19
12	ENG · Aston Villa	2,077	2,162	2026-10-02
13	NOR · Viking FK	2,072	2,097	2026-10-01
14	ENG · Brentford	2,068	2,068	2026-09-18
15	ENG · Manchester United	2,065	2,147	2026-09-20
16	ENG · Bournemouth	2,058	2,073	2026-09-20
17	GER · Bayer Leverkusen	2,055	2,190	2026-09-20
18	POR · Sporting CP	2,054	2,145	2026-09-19
19	ESP · Atlético Madrid	2,042	2,134	2026-09-20
20	ENG · Leeds United	2,030	2,033	2026-09-20
21	POR · SL Benfica	2,026	2,071	2026-09-20
22	ITA · AS Roma	2,024	2,070	2026-09-19
23	ENG · Chelsea	2,022	2,185	2026-09-18
24	GER · VfB Stuttgart	2,018	2,050	2026-10-01
25	BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise	2,018	2,037	2026-09-20
26	POR · Porto	2,014	2,086	2026-10-02
27	ENG · Newcastle United	2,014	2,141	2026-09-19
28	RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg	2,010	2,011	2026-10-04
29	ENG · Everton	2,007	2,009	2026-09-19
30	ITA · Juventus	1,996	2,200	2026-10-02

Top national teams by current rating

#	Team	Rating	Peak	Last match
1	ESP · Spain	2,311	2,311	2026-10-06
2	ENG · England	2,195	2,195	2026-10-06
3	ARG · Argentina	2,181	2,198	2026-07-19
4	FRA · France	2,156	2,209	2026-10-05
5	POR · Portugal	2,087	2,088	2026-10-04
6	MAR · Morocco	2,083	2,106	2026-07-09
7	COL · Colombia	2,046	2,115	2026-07-07
8	SUI · Switzerland	2,033	2,033	2026-10-06
9	NED · Netherlands	2,023	2,177	2026-10-04
10	JPN · Japan	2,022	2,063	2026-06-29
11	BRA · Brazil	2,021	2,212	2026-07-05
12	BEL · Belgium	2,018	2,175	2026-10-05
13	MEX · Mexico	2,015	2,054	2026-07-05
14	NOR · Norway	1,972	2,053	2026-10-04
15	GER · Germany	1,964	2,254	2026-10-04
16	ITA · Italy	1,956	2,095	2026-10-05
17	NGA · Nigeria	1,950	1,961	2026-06-10
18	AUS · Australia	1,949	2,002	2026-07-03
19	IRN · Iran	1,934	2,017	2026-06-26
20	ECU · Ecuador	1,932	1,977	2026-06-30
21	CRO · Croatia	1,923	2,036	2026-10-06
22	SEN · Senegal	1,922	1,990	2026-07-01
23	AUT · Austria	1,916	1,956	2026-10-04
24	DEN · Denmark	1,908	2,018	2026-10-04
25	ALG · Algeria	1,908	1,961	2026-07-02
26	KOR · South Korea	1,900	1,985	2026-06-24
27	EGY · Egypt	1,888	1,962	2026-07-07
28	CIV · Ivory Coast	1,887	2,007	2026-06-30
29	URU · Uruguay	1,881	2,053	2026-06-26
30	USA · United States	1,880	2,011	2026-07-06

All rated teams 14,598 teams

Type Country

Team

▸ Reset

#	Team	Country	Rating	Peak	Matches	Last match
5551	POA Karditsa	GRE	1,492	1,500	1	1949-10-06
5552	Potamia	GRE	1,492	1,500	1	2019-08-25
5553	Hirm	AUT	1,492	1,500	1	1999-08-01
5554	KSV Ankerbrot Wien	AUT	1,492	1,500	1	1960-03-13
5555	Landstraßer Amateure Wien	AUT	1,492	1,500	1	1918-10-27
5556	Pöllau	AUT	1,492	1,500	1	1999-08-07
5557	Sankt Peter/Au	AUT	1,492	1,500	1	2000-08-15
5558	St.Florian	AUT	1,492	1,500	1	1999-08-06
5559	Wiener Neudorf	AUT	1,492	1,500	1	1999-08-01
5560	AS Mihai Bravu	ROU	1,492	1,500	1	2017-08-09
5561	Ceahlăul II Piatra Neamț	ROU	1,492	1,500	1	2014-07-16
5562	CFR Rovine Craiova	ROU	1,492	1,500	1	1959-03-08
5563	Chimia Găeşti	ROU	1,492	1,500	1	1974-11-13
5564	Concordia II Chiajna	ROU	1,492	1,500	1	2014-07-16
5565	CS Lonea	ROU	1,492	1,500	1	1939-11-12
5566	FC Bistrița	ROU	1,492	1,500	1	2016-08-10
5567	Locomotiva Filaret București	ROU	1,492	1,500	1	1959-03-08
5568	Metropolitan Ișalnița	ROU	1,492	1,500	1	2015-07-15
5569	Olimpia Reşiţa	ROU	1,492	1,500	1	1959-11-29
5570	Rapid Fetești	ROU	1,492	1,500	1	2014-07-16
5571	RGM Timișoara	ROU	1,492	1,500	1	1935-03-24
5572	Transilvania Arad	ROU	1,492	1,508	2	1934-04-09
5573	FC Haute-Ajoie	SUI	1,492	1,500	1	2024-08-17
5574	FC Perly	SUI	1,492	1,500	1	1990-08-11
5575	TP Lahti	FIN	1,492	1,500	1	2002-07-01
5576	06 Załęże Katowice	POL	1,492	1,500	1	1926-01-10
5577	Czarni Lwów	POL	1,492	1,500	1	1926-06-20
5578	Fablok Chrzanów	POL	1,492	1,500	1	2006-08-15
5579	Hejnał Kęty	POL	1,492	1,500	1	1985-07-28
5580	Konfeks Legnica	POL	1,492	1,500	1	1993-07-28
5581	Zagłębie II Wałbrzych	POL	1,492	1,500	1	1985-07-28
5582	Aars FC	DEN	1,492	1,500	1	2008-08-13
5583	B 1921	DEN	1,492	1,500	1	1963-08-18
5584	BK Dalgas	DEN	1,492	1,500	1	1963-08-18
5585	Boorsem Sport	BEL	1,492	1,500	1	2018-07-29
5586	CS Bon-Marché Bruxelles	BEL	1,492	1,500	1	1926-08-22
5587	Corpore Sano d'Ixelles	BEL	1,492	1,500	1	1912-10-13
5588	ES Bourcy	BEL	1,492	1,500	1	2011-07-31
5589	Hand-In-Hand Hoepertingen	BEL	1,492	1,500	1	1979-07-29
5590	Helchteren	BEL	1,492	1,500	1	1971-08-01
5591	K. New Star Athletic Club Tervueren	BEL	1,492	1,500	1	1966-07-31
5592	KV Brucom Sportief	BEL	1,492	1,500	1	1975-08-03
5593	Lor Arlon	BEL	1,492	1,500	1	2001-08-12
5594	Millen	BEL	1,492	1,500	1	1975-08-03
5595	R. Albert Club Chèvremontois	BEL	1,492	1,500	1	1964-08-02
5596	R. Albert Club Leuze	BEL	1,492	1,500	1	1982-08-01
5597	R. Etoile Sportive Orgéotoise	BEL	1,492	1,500	1	1967-08-06
5598	R.ES.Couvin-Mariembourg	BEL	1,492	1,500	1	2002-08-04
5599	Santhovensche SK	BEL	1,492	1,500	1	1926-08-22
5600	UX Lixhe-Lanaye	BEL	1,492	1,500	1	1982-08-01

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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result	Odds	1 / odds	Margin removed
Home win	2.00	50.0%	48.3%
Draw	3.50	28.6%	27.6%
Away win	4.00	25.0%	24.1%
Total	—	103.6%	100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.