▦ FDB4
NOT BET ADVICE ONLINE Sign in
// Elo ratings 545,213 matches rated · 14,929 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,213
Teams rated14,929
Evenly matched draw 26.06% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.48% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,660 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 26.06% 26.1% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 24.92% 24.9% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 23.11% 23.1% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.90% 75–99 — drew 23.64% 23.6% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.94% 100–149 — drew 24.49% 24.5% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.27% 150–199 — drew 23.17% 23.2% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.34% 200–299 — drew 20.07% 20.1% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.05% 300+ — drew 13.48% 13.5% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,205 26.06% 22,135 29.31% 28.79% -1.32%
25–49 72,426 24.92% 21,804 28.79% 28.66% -2.65%
50–74 78,902 23.11% 20,470 28.21% 28.34% -3.41%
75–99 64,628 23.64% 18,577 28.21% 27.90% -2.02%
100–149 86,863 24.49% 29,709 26.90% 26.94% -3.20%
150–199 53,224 23.17% 20,283 25.45% 25.27% -2.70%
200–299 49,715 20.07% 19,156 21.90% 22.34% -5.33%
300+ 22,697 13.48% 8,735 14.49% 16.05% -12.98%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,553 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.80% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.97% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,608 25.80% 0 — — —
100–149 8,280 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,397 19.97% 0 — — —
300+ 6,490 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,323 2,336 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,260 2,337 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,252 2,300 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,221 2,245 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,160 2,237 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,148 2,245 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,132 2,203 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,124 2,147 2026-09-20
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,110 2,110 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,104 2,292 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,099 2,123 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,078 2,168 2026-09-19
13 ENG · Brentford 2,074 2,074 2026-09-18
14 NOR · Viking FK 2,073 2,098 2026-09-20
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,071 2,157 2026-09-20
16 POR · Sporting CP 2,069 2,143 2026-09-19
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,066 2,196 2026-09-20
18 ENG · Bournemouth 2,064 2,079 2026-09-20
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,053 2,136 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,036 2,040 2026-09-20
21 ENG · Chelsea 2,033 2,198 2026-09-18
22 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,031 2,043 2026-09-20
23 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,031 2,057 2026-09-25
24 ITA · AS Roma 2,028 2,072 2026-09-19
25 POR · SL Benfica 2,027 2,073 2026-09-20
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,020 2,138 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,017 2,089 2026-09-20
28 ENG · Everton 2,013 2,015 2026-09-19
29 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,011 2,013 2026-09-27
30 ITA · Juventus 2,010 2,204 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,051 2,088 2026-09-27
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 NED · Netherlands 2,025 2,177 2026-09-27
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
13 NOR · Norway 2,016 2,053 2026-09-27
14 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
15 GER · Germany 1,957 2,254 2026-09-27
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 AUT · Austria 1,925 1,956 2026-09-27
22 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
23 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
24 DEN · Denmark 1,916 2,018 2026-09-27
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,593 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
501 Kolding IF DEN 1,617 1,650 49 2025-09-25
502 Keio University JPN 1,616 1,616 18 1953-05-05
503 PFC Ludogorets Razgrad BUL 1,616 1,700 107 2026-09-27
504 Granada CF ESP 1,616 1,901 700 2026-09-26
505 Sigma Olomouc CZE 1,616 1,623 56 2026-03-19
506 AC Oulu FIN 1,615 1,723 211 2026-09-18
507 Ural Yekaterinburg RUS 1,615 1,714 336 2026-02-20
508 Sivasspor TUR 1,615 1,808 794 2025-12-03
509 Albacete Balompié ESP 1,615 1,702 1,196 2026-09-25
510 Watford ENG 1,614 1,917 1,991 2026-09-18
511 Racing Club ARG 1,614 1,734 539 2026-09-27
512 Instituto de Córdoba ARG 1,614 1,614 164 2026-09-20
513 CD Leganés ESP 1,614 1,827 875 2026-09-28
514 Blackpool ENG 1,614 1,784 1,972 2026-09-19
515 FC Lausanne-Sport SUI 1,614 1,814 785 2026-09-20
516 Dundalk IRL 1,613 1,944 812 2026-09-18
517 AC Omonia Nicosia CYP 1,613 1,653 179 2026-09-16
518 Desna Chernihiv UKR 1,612 1,729 166 2021-12-10
519 Kharkiv UKR 1,612 1,612 20 2026-09-19
520 Hamburger SV II GER 1,612 1,612 34 2018-05-13
521 K. FC Winterslag BEL 1,612 1,612 61 1983-08-28
522 Gençlerbirliği TUR 1,612 1,806 1,099 2026-09-19
523 Grasshopper Club Zürich SUI 1,611 1,866 1,049 2026-09-24
524 Kolos Kovalivka UKR 1,611 1,674 217 2026-09-20
525 Club Atlético Huracán ARG 1,611 1,670 423 2026-09-19
526 Internacional BRA 1,610 1,788 597 2026-09-20
527 Urawa Red Diamonds JPN 1,610 1,838 580 2026-09-19
528 FC Zorya Luhansk UKR 1,610 1,825 455 2026-09-28
529 Panetolikos GRE 1,609 1,640 615 2026-09-20
530 Sepsi OSK Sfântu Gheorghe ROU 1,609 1,752 353 2026-09-18
531 Oxford University ENG 1,609 1,617 41 1880-04-10
532 CF Pachuca MEX 1,609 1,723 554 2026-09-27
533 Esbjerg fB DEN 1,608 1,702 352 2026-01-23
534 Cerezo Osaka JPN 1,608 1,773 503 2026-09-19
535 Racing Fondi ITA 1,608 1,621 36 2018-05-06
536 Metalul Buzău ROU 1,608 1,608 25 2026-08-12
537 Vibonese ITA 1,606 1,606 130 2022-04-24
538 Seattle Sounders USA 1,605 1,700 575 2026-09-27
539 Lechia Gdańsk POL 1,605 1,739 551 2026-07-18
540 Preston North End ENG 1,604 1,791 2,097 2026-09-19
541 Columbus Crew USA 1,604 1,724 554 2026-09-28
542 Corvinul Hunedoara ROU 1,604 1,619 76 2026-09-21
543 Cracovia POL 1,604 1,719 547 2026-09-19
544 Gamba Osaka JPN 1,604 1,781 551 2026-09-20
545 Milton Keynes Dons ENG 1,603 1,727 1,131 2026-09-17
546 Ayr United SCO 1,603 1,770 1,227 2026-09-25
547 Eintracht Braunschweig GER 1,603 1,734 794 2026-09-19
548 Halmstads BK SWE 1,603 1,721 415 2026-09-20
549 Burton Albion ENG 1,603 1,689 1,090 2026-09-26
550 Chicago Fire USA 1,603 1,614 543 2026-09-27
page 11 / 292 ‹ prev next ›
Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

We use a session cookie to run the site and, if you allow it, Google Analytics to see which pages are used. No ads, no tracking across sites. Cookie policy