How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,496

Teams rated14,934

Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25

Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+

Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this

Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,909 matches

drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.

Rating gap	Matches	Drew	With odds	Drew (those)	Bookmaker's figure	Return if you bet every draw
0–24	67,226	27.39%	22,161	29.39%	28.79%	-1.08%
25–49	72,898	26.31%	21,925	28.62%	28.66%	-3.14%
50–74	79,096	25.02%	20,405	28.41%	28.34%	-2.77%
75–99	64,754	25.22%	18,710	28.04%	27.91%	-2.60%
100–149	86,849	25.25%	29,683	26.91%	26.93%	-3.11%
150–199	53,178	23.71%	20,326	25.50%	25.26%	-2.52%
200–299	49,421	20.56%	19,016	21.77%	22.31%	-5.79%
300+	22,487	13.95%	8,643	14.52%	16.00%	-12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,587 matches

drew How often each rating gap actually drew.

Rating gap	Matches	Drew	Drew (those)	Bookmaker's figure	Return if you bet every draw
0–24	5,166	27.45%	—	—	—
25–49	5,087	25.56%	—	—	—
50–74	5,106	26.87%	—	—	—
75–99	4,610	25.81%	—	—	—
100–149	8,288	24.59%	—	—	—
150–199	6,431	22.97%	—	—	—
200–299	8,405	20.00%	—	—	—
300+	6,494	12.38%	—	—	—

Top clubs by current rating

#	Team	Rating	Peak	Last match
1	GER · FC Bayern München	2,315	2,328	2026-09-18
2	ENG · Manchester City	2,253	2,331	2026-09-20
3	ENG · Arsenal	2,244	2,293	2026-09-19
4	ESP · Barcelona	2,209	2,243	2026-09-19
5	FRA · Paris Saint-Germain	2,154	2,231	2026-09-20
6	ESP · Real Madrid	2,139	2,237	2026-09-20
7	ITA · Inter Milan	2,127	2,202	2026-10-03
8	NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt	2,122	2,143	2026-10-01
9	ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion	2,103	2,103	2026-09-19
10	ENG · Liverpool	2,098	2,285	2026-09-20
11	GER · Borussia Dortmund	2,091	2,116	2026-09-19
12	ENG · Aston Villa	2,077	2,162	2026-10-02
13	NOR · Viking FK	2,072	2,097	2026-10-01
14	ENG · Brentford	2,068	2,068	2026-09-18
15	ENG · Manchester United	2,065	2,147	2026-09-20
16	ENG · Bournemouth	2,058	2,073	2026-09-20
17	GER · Bayer Leverkusen	2,055	2,190	2026-09-20
18	POR · Sporting CP	2,054	2,145	2026-09-19
19	ESP · Atlético Madrid	2,042	2,134	2026-09-20
20	ENG · Leeds United	2,030	2,033	2026-09-20
21	POR · SL Benfica	2,026	2,071	2026-09-20
22	ITA · AS Roma	2,024	2,070	2026-09-19
23	ENG · Chelsea	2,022	2,185	2026-09-18
24	GER · VfB Stuttgart	2,018	2,050	2026-10-01
25	BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise	2,018	2,037	2026-09-20
26	POR · Porto	2,014	2,086	2026-10-02
27	ENG · Newcastle United	2,014	2,141	2026-09-19
28	RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg	2,010	2,011	2026-10-04
29	ENG · Everton	2,007	2,009	2026-09-19
30	ITA · Juventus	1,996	2,200	2026-10-02

Top national teams by current rating

#	Team	Rating	Peak	Last match
1	ESP · Spain	2,306	2,306	2026-10-03
2	ENG · England	2,191	2,191	2026-10-03
3	ARG · Argentina	2,181	2,198	2026-07-19
4	FRA · France	2,136	2,209	2026-10-02
5	POR · Portugal	2,087	2,088	2026-10-04
6	MAR · Morocco	2,083	2,106	2026-07-09
7	COL · Colombia	2,046	2,115	2026-07-07
8	BEL · Belgium	2,038	2,175	2026-10-02
9	SUI · Switzerland	2,029	2,032	2026-10-03
10	NED · Netherlands	2,023	2,177	2026-10-04
11	JPN · Japan	2,022	2,063	2026-06-29
12	BRA · Brazil	2,021	2,212	2026-07-05
13	MEX · Mexico	2,015	2,054	2026-07-05
14	NOR · Norway	1,972	2,053	2026-10-04
15	GER · Germany	1,964	2,254	2026-10-04
16	NGA · Nigeria	1,950	1,961	2026-06-10
17	AUS · Australia	1,949	2,002	2026-07-03
18	ITA · Italy	1,937	2,095	2026-10-02
19	IRN · Iran	1,934	2,017	2026-06-26
20	ECU · Ecuador	1,932	1,977	2026-06-30
21	CRO · Croatia	1,928	2,036	2026-10-03
22	SEN · Senegal	1,922	1,990	2026-07-01
23	AUT · Austria	1,916	1,956	2026-10-04
24	DEN · Denmark	1,908	2,018	2026-10-04
25	ALG · Algeria	1,908	1,961	2026-07-02
26	KOR · South Korea	1,900	1,985	2026-06-24
27	EGY · Egypt	1,888	1,962	2026-07-07
28	CIV · Ivory Coast	1,887	2,007	2026-06-30
29	URU · Uruguay	1,881	2,053	2026-06-26
30	USA · United States	1,880	2,011	2026-07-06

All rated teams 14,598 teams

Type Country

Team

▸ Reset

#	Team	Country	Rating	Peak	Matches	Last match
5401	Ratingen 04/19	GER	1,492	1,500	1	2024-04-10
5402	CD Gévora	ESP	1,492	1,500	2	2024-10-31
5403	Gloria Albești	ROU	1,492	1,500	1	2022-08-17
5404	TSG Thannhausen	GER	1,492	1,500	1	2006-09-09
5405	Asteras Magoula	GRE	1,492	1,516	8	2014-01-23
5406	FC Serrières NE	SUI	1,492	1,500	2	2009-10-17
5407	FC Culpa	DEN	1,492	1,511	2	2022-08-31
5408	USK Dovbush Chernivtsi	UKR	1,492	1,500	1	2026-08-09
5409	Guarani Futebol Clube	BRA	1,492	1,502	8	2026-02-25
5410	Axi Arena	ROU	1,492	1,500	1	2026-07-29
5411	Czarni Witnica	POL	1,492	1,500	2	1998-07-24
5412	Zatoka Braniewo	POL	1,492	1,517	4	1997-08-27
5413	Anadoluhisarı	TUR	1,492	1,510	8	1996-10-02
5414	Sollentuna FK	SWE	1,492	1,525	31	2025-06-18
5415	Brindisi	ITA	1,492	1,527	38	2024-04-27
5416	Korona Ostrołęka	POL	1,492	1,500	1	2005-08-15
5417	Bregel Sport	BEL	1,492	1,500	1	2018-07-29
5418	Asteras Rethymno	GRE	1,492	1,500	1	1949-10-06
5419	Rissho University	JPN	1,492	1,500	1	2022-05-22
5420	Okzhetpes Kokshetau	KAZ	1,492	1,515	2	2009-07-29
5421	Haslingden	ENG	1,492	1,500	1	1882-12-02
5422	Inhulets Petrove	UKR	1,492	1,577	128	2026-08-22
5423	Carpendolo	ITA	1,492	1,500	1	2006-08-20
5424	1. FC Phönix Lübeck	GER	1,492	1,500	2	2026-08-23
5425	Rätia Bludenz	AUT	1,492	1,514	6	1977-05-03
5426	FC Houdeng	BEL	1,492	1,500	2	2001-08-19
5427	K. Stade Leuven	BEL	1,492	1,582	51	2001-08-19
5428	Operário Futebol Clube	BRA	1,492	1,500	8	2026-03-12
5429	Rapid Cluj	ROU	1,492	1,500	1	1959-11-29
5430	FC.Verbr.Meerhout	BEL	1,492	1,521	3	2002-08-04
5431	Krasyliv	UKR	1,492	1,500	1	2005-08-13
5432	FC Uznach	SUI	1,492	1,518	28	2010-09-18
5433	Palmira Odesa	UKR	1,492	1,504	6	2026-08-23
5434	Atromitos Patras	GRE	1,492	1,500	1	2019-09-15
5435	Avântul Valea Mărului	ROU	1,492	1,500	3	2017-08-22
5436	Çanspor	TUR	1,492	1,500	1	1998-09-02
5437	Metalurh-2 Donetsk	UKR	1,492	1,500	1	1997-07-18
5438	Laaksolahden Jalkapalloseura	FIN	1,492	1,528	6	2024-03-08
5439	Töölön Vesa	FIN	1,492	1,509	14	2026-02-15
5440	Pafawag Wrocław	POL	1,492	1,500	4	1986-07-27
5441	FC St-Louis Bouillon	BEL	1,492	1,500	1	1926-08-29
5442	Isparta Karagücü	TUR	1,492	1,500	1	1962-09-02
5443	FC Red Bull Salzburg Juniors	AUT	1,492	1,500	1	2012-04-11
5444	Polizei/Feuerwehr Wien	AUT	1,492	1,500	1	2001-08-21
5445	Akilles	FIN	1,492	1,523	5	2025-03-17
5446	Olympia Wijgmaal	BEL	1,492	1,508	2	2009-08-09
5447	Fermoy	IRL	1,492	1,500	2	1995-01-28
5448	FC Zlín	CZE	1,492	1,524	10	2017-11-04
5449	Olympique Strasbourg	FRA	1,492	1,500	1	2019-01-06
5450	FC Diepoldsau	SUI	1,492	1,513	3	2000-08-12

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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result	Odds	1 / odds	Margin removed
Home win	2.00	50.0%	48.3%
Draw	3.50	28.6%	27.6%
Away win	4.00	25.0%	24.1%
Total	—	103.6%	100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.