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// Elo ratings 545,518 matches rated · 14,934 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,518
Teams rated14,934
Evenly matched draw 27.39% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,915 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.39% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.71% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,226 27.39% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,899 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,097 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,754 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,852 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,178 23.71% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,422 20.56% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,487 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,603 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.44% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.55% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.87% 26.9% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.83% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.60% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.96% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 20.01% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,168 27.44% 0 — — —
25–49 5,088 25.55% 0 — — —
50–74 5,107 26.87% 0 — — —
75–99 4,611 25.83% 0 — — —
100–149 8,292 24.60% 0 — — —
150–199 6,433 22.96% 0 — — —
200–299 8,407 20.01% 0 — — —
300+ 6,497 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-10-03
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,077 2,162 2026-10-02
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 POR · Porto 2,014 2,086 2026-10-02
27 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,010 2,011 2026-10-04
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,311 2,311 2026-10-06
2 ENG · England 2,195 2,195 2026-10-06
3 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
4 FRA · France 2,156 2,209 2026-10-05
5 POR · Portugal 2,087 2,088 2026-10-04
6 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 SUI · Switzerland 2,033 2,033 2026-10-06
9 NED · Netherlands 2,023 2,177 2026-10-04
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 BEL · Belgium 2,018 2,175 2026-10-05
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,972 2,053 2026-10-04
15 GER · Germany 1,964 2,254 2026-10-04
16 ITA · Italy 1,956 2,095 2026-10-05
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 CRO · Croatia 1,923 2,036 2026-10-06
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,916 1,956 2026-10-04
24 DEN · Denmark 1,908 2,018 2026-10-04
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
30 USA · United States 1,880 2,011 2026-07-06
All rated teams 14,934 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
5401 ATSV Trimmelkam AUT 1,493 1,511 2 1995-09-09
5402 Polizei Basel SUI 1,493 1,504 3 1944-11-12
5403 KuuLa FIN 1,493 1,538 10 2026-03-05
5404 STVV BEL 1,493 1,522 5 2010-10-27
5405 SC Mittersill AUT 1,493 1,512 3 1984-03-03
5406 Hemel Hempstead Town ENG 1,493 1,500 4 2026-08-01
5407 Peimari United FIN 1,493 1,530 9 2017-09-19
5408 Seraing United BEL 1,493 1,512 4 2015-08-23
5409 BSG Chemie Leipzig GER 1,493 1,542 87 2026-09-27
5410 Polihraftekhnika-2 Oleksandriia UKR 1,493 1,508 2 1992-08-07
5411 Entente Sportive Bellefontaine BEL 1,493 1,507 10 1979-07-29
5412 FC Dender BEL 1,493 1,500 1 2018-08-12
5413 SV Wehen Wiesbaden GER 1,493 1,619 696 2026-10-02
5414 CD Trofense POR 1,493 1,628 34 2026-08-29
5415 K. Schilde SK BEL 1,493 1,517 12 1982-08-08
5416 KFC Schoten SK BEL 1,493 1,546 25 2014-08-03
5417 LASK Reserves AUT 1,493 1,500 1 2009-07-31
5418 SK Sturm Graz II AUT 1,493 1,511 2 2010-08-15
5419 Olympique de Charleville FRA 1,493 1,508 42 1997-05-24
5420 FC America CFL Spurs USA 1,493 1,506 3 2026-03-31
5421 K. SV Oudenaerde BEL 1,493 1,512 2 1964-08-09
5422 Lierneux FC BEL 1,493 1,524 10 2017-07-30
5423 RC Gouy BEL 1,493 1,500 1 2013-08-04
5424 Karpaty Chernivtsi UKR 1,493 1,514 2 1994-08-21
5425 Wisan Skopanie POL 1,493 1,514 2 1995-08-23
5426 Christiania NOR 1,493 1,500 1 2026-08-23
5427 Al Najma KSA 1,493 1,512 9 2025-10-27
5428 Niki Volos GRE 1,493 1,545 184 2025-08-18
5429 AO Trikala GRE 1,493 1,554 163 2026-08-11
5430 HFIF Fotball NOR 1,493 1,500 1 2013-04-17
5431 Pobeda Prilep MKD 1,493 1,517 12 2007-07-25
5432 Înfrăţirea Oradea ROU 1,493 1,500 1 1981-12-02
5433 Chengdu Qbao CHN 1,493 1,518 6 2017-04-19
5434 Coventry Sporting ENG 1,493 1,513 2 1975-12-13
5435 Al Gottah KSA 1,493 1,502 2 2019-01-03
5436 Omega Kleszczów POL 1,493 1,501 3 2009-08-12
5437 R. Association CS Couillet BEL 1,493 1,500 3 1982-08-08
5438 ASKÖ Oedt AUT 1,493 1,505 4 2025-08-27
5439 FC Belfaux SUI 1,493 1,514 2 1994-09-02
5440 FC Stäfa SUI 1,493 1,534 30 1996-08-10
5441 FC Peltirumpu FIN 1,493 1,533 6 2016-01-29
5442 Odense KFUM DEN 1,493 1,558 8 2025-08-05
5443 Guangxi Longguida CHN 1,493 1,512 2 2015-04-15
5444 Shropshire Wanderers ENG 1,493 1,525 8 1877-11-12
5445 Blijf Jong Kozen BEL 1,493 1,502 2 1981-08-09
5446 Concórdia Atlético Clube BRA 1,493 1,509 2 2025-03-11
5447 FCV/Reds FIN 1,493 1,500 3 2026-02-19
5448 Liuzhou Ranko CHN 1,493 1,517 12 2019-03-30
5449 Tianjin Lifei CHN 1,493 1,500 1 2001-04-29
5450 Ramlösa Södra FF SWE 1,493 1,531 9 2012-08-18
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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