What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 114 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Slovenia drew 39 where the draw model expected 25.4 from those particular fixtures — about 14 more, or 3.1 standard errors, well beyond the model — which is as likely to be a gap in the model as a property of Slovenia.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 8 times running. A flat league average would have expected 26.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29 | 15 Aug 2012 → 08 Sep 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 01 Apr 2009 → 13 Jun 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 17 Apr 2002 → 30 Apr 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 16 Nov 1994 → 07 Feb 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 07 Jun 2019 → 19 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 03 Sep 2005 → 04 Jun 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 07 Sep 2023 → 20 Jan 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 05 Jun 1999 → 13 Nov 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 23 Mar 2018 → 13 Oct 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 17 Oct 2007 → 20 Aug 2008 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 101 | 26 | 25.7% | 1 | 9 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 86 | 17 | 19.8% | 6 | 8 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 78 | 21 | 26.9% | 0 | 7 |
| UEFA Nations League | 28 | 12 | 42.9% | 1 | 4 |
| UEFA European Championship | 7 | 6 | 85.7% | 0 | 1 |
| FIFA World Cup | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 1 | 3 |
| Malta International Tournament | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 1 | 1 |
| Cyprus International Tournament | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Lunar New Year Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2025 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 2024 | 15 | 8 | 53.3% | 4 |
| 2023 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 2022 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2021 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2020 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 2019 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 2018 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 2017 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2016 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 2015 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 2014 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 2013 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2012 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2011 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 2010 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 3 |
| 2009 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 2008 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 4 |
| 2007 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 3 |
| 2006 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 2005 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2004 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2003 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 2002 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 8 |
| 2001 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 3 |
| 2000 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 3 |
| 1999 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 1998 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1997 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1996 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1995 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1994 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 4 |
| 1993 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1992 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1991 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 18:45 | Switzerland | vs | Slovenia | – / – / – | 15.9% |
|
| Tue, 06 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 06 Oct 18:45 | Scotland | vs | Slovenia | – / – / – | 28.3% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.