What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 153 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Portugal drew 32 where the draw model expected 30.1 from those particular fixtures — about 2 more, or 0.4 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 35.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29 | 05 Jun 2022 → 26 Jun 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 21 | 26 Jun 2014 → 08 Jun 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 16 | 29 Apr 1981 → 23 Feb 1983 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 12 Jun 1966 → 13 Nov 1966 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 06 Jul 2016 → 09 Jun 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 06 Feb 2008 → 10 Sep 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 29 Mar 2000 → 03 Sep 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 20 Jun 1984 → 03 Apr 1985 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 05 Jun 2019 → 17 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 01 Mar 2006 → 25 Jun 2006 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 289 | 68 | 23.5% | 3 | 15 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 155 | 36 | 23.2% | 2 | 10 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 125 | 26 | 20.8% | 10 | 10 |
| UEFA European Championship | 44 | 12 | 27.3% | 0 | 5 |
| FIFA World Cup | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 2 | 6 |
| UEFA Nations League | 31 | 7 | 22.6% | 3 | 5 |
| Brazil Independence Cup | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 2 | 5 |
| Confederations Cup | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 | 2 |
| Olympic Games | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| USA Cup | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2025 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 2024 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 2023 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2022 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% | 11 |
| 2021 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2020 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2019 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 2018 | 15 | 7 | 46.7% | 3 |
| 2017 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2016 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 7 |
| 2015 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2014 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 6 |
| 2013 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2012 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 5 |
| 2011 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2010 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 4 |
| 2009 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2008 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 10 |
| 2007 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 2006 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 7 |
| 2005 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2004 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2003 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2002 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 4 |
| 2001 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2000 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 10 |
| 1999 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1998 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1997 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1996 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1995 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 4 |
| 1994 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1993 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 1992 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1991 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1990 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 1988 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1987 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1986 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 5 |
| 1985 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1984 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1983 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1982 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1981 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 1980 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1979 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1978 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1976 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1975 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1974 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1973 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1972 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 1971 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1970 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1968 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1967 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 12 |
| 1965 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1964 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1963 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1961 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1960 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1959 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1958 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1956 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1955 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1954 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1953 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1952 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1951 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1950 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1949 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1947 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1946 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1945 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1942 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1941 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1940 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1939 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1938 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1937 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1936 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1934 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1933 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1932 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1931 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1929 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 1927 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1926 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1925 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1923 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1922 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1921 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 04 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 04 Oct 18:45 | Portugal | vs | Norway | – / – / – | 20.9% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.