What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 119 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Norway drew 24 where the draw model expected 24.8 from those particular fixtures — about 1 fewer, or 0.2 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 27.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 01 Sep 2017 → 16 Oct 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 09 Sep 2009 → 09 Feb 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 09 Sep 2024 → 11 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 23 May 1974 → 29 Oct 1975 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 08 Jun 2005 → 01 Mar 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 06 Sep 2003 → 28 Apr 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 29 Mar 2016 → 26 Mar 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 04 Jun 2011 → 26 May 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 27 Mar 1999 → 14 Nov 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 14 Sep 1988 → 14 Jun 1989 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 409 | 96 | 23.5% | 0 | 14 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 144 | 33 | 22.9% | 8 | 8 |
| Nordic Championship | 141 | 31 | 22.0% | 1 | 3 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 133 | 27 | 20.3% | 0 | 7 |
| UEFA Nations League | 26 | 4 | 15.4% | 2 | 5 |
| FIFA World Cup | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 6 | 6 |
| Olympic Games | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| UEFA European Championship | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 0 | 2 |
| Lunar New Year Cup | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Malta International Tournament | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| King's Cup | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 8 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 2024 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2023 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2022 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2021 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2020 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 2019 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2018 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 2017 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 6 |
| 2016 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 2015 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 6 |
| 2014 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2013 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 5 |
| 2012 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 2011 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 2010 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 2009 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 2008 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2007 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 4 |
| 2006 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2005 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 2004 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 6 |
| 2003 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 6 |
| 2002 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2001 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 5 |
| 2000 | 14 | 6 | 42.9% | 5 |
| 1999 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 10 |
| 1998 | 14 | 7 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 1997 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1996 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1995 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 6 |
| 1994 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 4 |
| 1993 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 1992 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 3 |
| 1991 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 1990 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1989 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 5 |
| 1988 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 5 |
| 1987 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1986 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 7 |
| 1985 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 7 |
| 1984 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1983 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1982 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1981 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1980 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1979 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1978 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 1 |
| 1977 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1976 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1975 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1974 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1973 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1972 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1971 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1970 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1969 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 5 |
| 1968 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1967 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1966 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1965 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 5 |
| 1964 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1963 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1962 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1961 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 7 |
| 1960 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1959 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1958 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1957 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 4 |
| 1956 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1955 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1954 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 1953 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1952 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1951 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1950 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1949 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1947 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1946 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1945 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1939 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1938 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1937 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 1936 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1935 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1934 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1933 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1932 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1931 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1930 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1929 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1928 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1927 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1926 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1924 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1923 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1922 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1921 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1920 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1919 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1918 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1917 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1916 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1915 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1914 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1913 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1912 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1911 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1910 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, 01 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Oct 18:45 | Wales | vs | Norway | – / – / – | 19.5% |
|
| Sun, 04 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 04 Oct 18:45 | Portugal | vs | Norway | – / – / – | 24.4% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.