Mainz 05
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 459 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Mainz 05 drew 116 where the draw model expected 110.7 from those particular fixtures — about 5 more, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 114.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25 | 12 May 2019 → 08 Feb 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 22 | 15 Aug 2010 → 29 Jan 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 19 | 11 Apr 2015 → 27 Oct 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 19 Jan 2019 → 27 Apr 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 30 May 2020 → 31 Oct 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 13 Sep 2025 → 20 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 09 Nov 2024 → 31 Jan 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 27 Oct 2012 → 18 Dec 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 10 Nov 2002 → 23 Feb 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 26 Nov 2021 → 05 Feb 2022 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 684 | 181 | 26.5% | 3 | 23 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 446 | 134 | 30.0% | 6 | 11 |
| DFB-Pokal | 46 | 14 | 30.4% | 2 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 21 | 4 | 19.1% | 3 | 3 |
| UEFA Europa League | 16 | 7 | 43.8% | 2 | 2 |
| UEFA Conference League | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 3 | 6 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 8 |
| 2025 | 46 | 12 | 26.1% | 11 |
| 2024 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 2023 | 39 | 13 | 33.3% | 8 |
| 2022 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 6 |
| 2021 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 5 |
| 2020 | 33 | 8 | 24.2% | 13 |
| 2019 | 35 | 1 | 2.9% | 20 |
| 2018 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 7 |
| 2017 | 40 | 12 | 30.0% | 9 |
| 2016 | 43 | 11 | 25.6% | 9 |
| 2015 | 36 | 7 | 19.4% | 19 |
| 2014 | 37 | 12 | 32.4% | 10 |
| 2013 | 37 | 14 | 37.8% | 9 |
| 2012 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 11 |
| 2011 | 39 | 14 | 35.9% | 5 |
| 2010 | 36 | 5 | 13.9% | 19 |
| 2009 | 38 | 13 | 34.2% | 8 |
| 2008 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 8 |
| 2007 | 36 | 6 | 16.7% | 9 |
| 2006 | 35 | 15 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 2005 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 6 |
| 2004 | 34 | 13 | 38.2% | 5 |
| 2003 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 7 |
| 2002 | 33 | 10 | 30.3% | 7 |
| 2001 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 7 |
| 2000 | 35 | 11 | 31.4% | 7 |
| 1999 | 32 | 10 | 31.3% | 5 |
| 1998 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 8 |
| 1997 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 8 |
| 1996 | 32 | 12 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 1995 | 36 | 6 | 16.7% | 9 |
| 1994 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 9 |
| 1993 | 19 | 6 | 31.6% | 4 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 13:30 |
Mainz 05
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 13:30 |
Schalke 04
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
| Wed, 21 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 21 Oct 12:00 |
FC Liefering
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 15.9% | ITL · Club Friendlies |
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 13:30 |
Mainz 05
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.4% |
|
| Tue, 27 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 27 Oct 17:00 |
VfL Bochum
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.8% |
|
| Fri, 30 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 30 Oct 19:30 |
SV Elversberg
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 14:30 |
Mainz 05
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 13.1% |
|
| Sat, 05 Dec 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Dec |
RB Leipzig
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sat, 10 Apr 2027 | ||||||
| 10 Apr |
Mainz 05
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 26.7% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.