What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 112 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Luxembourg drew 20 where the draw model expected 22.0 from those particular fixtures — about 2 fewer, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 25.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27 | 06 Sep 2003 → 02 Sep 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 24 Nov 1979 → 01 May 1981 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 09 Feb 2011 → 07 Sep 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 12 Oct 1983 → 27 Mar 1985 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 14 Jun 2015 → 07 Oct 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 07 Jun 2000 → 06 Oct 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 09 Oct 2021 → 11 Jun 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 07 Sep 1994 → 06 Sep 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 16 Oct 2023 → 08 Sep 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 10 Mar 1999 → 23 Feb 2000 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 164 | 33 | 20.1% | 2 | 8 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 148 | 10 | 6.8% | 6 | 12 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 128 | 13 | 10.2% | 4 | 9 |
| UEFA Nations League | 26 | 7 | 26.9% | 2 | 5 |
| Olympic Games | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 2024 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2023 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 2022 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 5 |
| 2021 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 7 |
| 2020 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 2019 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 7 |
| 2018 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2017 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 2016 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 2015 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 2014 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 2013 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 2012 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 2011 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2010 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2009 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2008 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2007 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 5 |
| 2006 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2005 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2004 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2003 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 4 |
| 2002 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 2001 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 2000 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1999 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1998 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1997 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1996 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1995 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 1994 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1993 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1992 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1991 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1990 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1988 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1987 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1986 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1985 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1984 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 1983 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1982 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1981 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1980 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 11 |
| 1979 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1978 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1977 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1976 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1975 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1974 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1973 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1972 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1971 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1970 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1969 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1968 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1964 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1963 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1962 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1961 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1960 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1959 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1957 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1956 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1954 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1952 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1949 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1947 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1945 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1940 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1939 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1938 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1937 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1936 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1935 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1934 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1927 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1925 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1924 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1923 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1922 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1920 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1914 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1913 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1911 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 16:00 | Estonia | vs | Luxembourg | – / – / – | 29.7% |
|
| Tue, 06 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 06 Oct 18:45 | Luxembourg | vs | Bulgaria | – / – / – | 29.0% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.