What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 500 matches (Mar 1934 – Sep 2026), Israel drew 116 where the draw model expected 105.5 from those particular fixtures — about 10 more, or 1.2 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 113.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 10 Oct 1998 → 23 Feb 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 25 Apr 1995 → 01 Sep 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 26 Apr 2000 → 02 Jun 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 31 Mar 2021 → 26 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 09 Oct 2010 → 11 Oct 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 28 Mar 2007 → 26 Mar 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 17 Nov 2024 → 14 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 18 Nov 2023 → 14 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 05 Mar 2014 → 03 Sep 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 28 May 1974 → 04 Dec 1974 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 225 | 55 | 24.4% | 1 | 13 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 140 | 35 | 25.0% | 8 | 10 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 82 | 17 | 20.7% | 3 | 7 |
| UEFA Nations League | 23 | 6 | 26.1% | 0 | 4 |
| AFC Asian Cup | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Asian Games | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 | 7 |
| AFC Asian Cup qualification | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 0 | 3 |
| FIFA World Cup | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 2024 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 2023 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 2022 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2021 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 10 |
| 2020 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 4 |
| 2019 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2018 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2017 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 2016 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2015 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 2014 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2013 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 2012 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 2011 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 2010 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 2009 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2008 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 2007 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 9 |
| 2006 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2005 | 9 | 6 | 66.7% | 2 |
| 2004 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 2003 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 2002 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2001 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2000 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 1999 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 13 |
| 1998 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 6 |
| 1997 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 1996 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 1995 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 8 |
| 1994 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 1993 | 12 | 7 | 58.3% | 1 |
| 1992 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1990 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1989 | 9 | 5 | 55.6% | 2 |
| 1988 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1987 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1986 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1985 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1984 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1983 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1981 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1980 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 2 |
| 1979 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1978 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 8 | 5 | 62.5% | 3 |
| 1976 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1975 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1974 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 1973 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 1972 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1971 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1970 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1969 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 4 |
| 1968 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 1967 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1966 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1965 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1964 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1963 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1962 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1961 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1960 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1959 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 1958 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1956 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1954 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1953 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1940 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1938 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1934 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 04 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 04 Oct 18:45 | Republic of Ireland | vs | Israel | – / – / – | 19.5% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.