TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 466 matches (Feb 2015 – Oct 2026), TSG 1899 Hoffenheim drew 125 where the draw model expected 105.8 from those particular fixtures — about 19 more, or 2.1 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 5 times running. A flat league average would have expected 115.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 25 Oct 2014 → 14 Feb 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 05 Aug 2023 → 04 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 29 Aug 2009 → 28 Nov 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 21 Sep 2008 → 05 Dec 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 28 Jan 2023 → 09 Apr 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 25 Sep 2021 → 11 Dec 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 07 Dec 2019 → 15 Feb 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 17 Feb 2024 → 26 Apr 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 14 Apr 2018 → 15 Sep 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 16 Dec 2007 → 16 Mar 2008 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 616 | 167 | 27.1% | 6 | 13 |
| DFB-Pokal | 53 | 10 | 18.9% | 1 | 5 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 1 | 8 |
| UEFA Europa League | 23 | 7 | 30.4% | 1 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 1 | 4 |
| UEFA Champions League | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31 | 5 | 16.1% | 7 |
| 2025 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 7 |
| 2024 | 42 | 13 | 31.0% | 10 |
| 2023 | 39 | 6 | 15.4% | 13 |
| 2022 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 9 |
| 2021 | 42 | 13 | 31.0% | 11 |
| 2020 | 40 | 10 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2019 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 8 |
| 2018 | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 10 |
| 2017 | 43 | 11 | 25.6% | 5 |
| 2016 | 36 | 14 | 38.9% | 8 |
| 2015 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 5 |
| 2014 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 10 |
| 2013 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 7 |
| 2012 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 9 |
| 2011 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 7 |
| 2010 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 6 |
| 2009 | 37 | 12 | 32.4% | 13 |
| 2008 | 38 | 4 | 10.5% | 13 |
| 2007 | 19 | 7 | 36.8% | 4 |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.