What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 145 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Germany drew 34 where the draw model expected 28.7 from those particular fixtures — about 5 more, or 1.1 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 34.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | 11 Oct 1953 → 13 Jun 1956 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 19 Nov 1933 → 26 May 1935 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 15 | 04 Jun 2025 → 25 Jun 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 19 Nov 1980 → 21 Mar 1982 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 24 Apr 1965 → 12 Jul 1966 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 29 Mar 2015 → 12 Jun 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 15 Nov 2011 → 12 Oct 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 17 Jun 1984 → 28 Aug 1985 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 23 Mar 1960 → 22 Oct 1961 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 02 May 1979 → 14 Jun 1980 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 594 | 124 | 20.9% | 4 | 14 |
| FIFA World Cup | 116 | 22 | 19.0% | 0 | 7 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 110 | 18 | 16.4% | 6 | 10 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 106 | 20 | 18.9% | 8 | 8 |
| UEFA European Championship | 58 | 14 | 24.1% | 2 | 6 |
| UEFA Nations League | 28 | 13 | 46.4% | 1 | 3 |
| Confederations Cup | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 3 | 3 |
| Olympic Games | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 3 |
| USA Cup | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 | 2 |
| Mundialito | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Four Nations Tournament | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 2024 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 3 |
| 2023 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 5 |
| 2022 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2021 | 16 | 2 | 12.5% | 8 |
| 2020 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 2019 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2018 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 6 |
| 2017 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 7 |
| 2016 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 6 |
| 2015 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 2014 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 8 |
| 2013 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2012 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 12 |
| 2011 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 7 |
| 2010 | 17 | 2 | 11.8% | 11 |
| 2009 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 5 |
| 2008 | 16 | 2 | 12.5% | 9 |
| 2007 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 8 |
| 2006 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 7 |
| 2005 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2004 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 6 |
| 2003 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 3 |
| 2002 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 7 |
| 2001 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 2000 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 1999 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 9 |
| 1998 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 4 |
| 1997 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1996 | 16 | 5 | 31.3% | 4 |
| 1995 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 1994 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 6 |
| 1993 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 1992 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 5 |
| 1991 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1990 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 4 |
| 1989 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 5 |
| 1987 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 1986 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 3 |
| 1985 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 8 |
| 1984 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 5 |
| 1983 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1982 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 5 |
| 1981 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 11 |
| 1980 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 5 |
| 1979 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 7 |
| 1978 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 4 |
| 1977 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 5 |
| 1976 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1975 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1974 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 11 |
| 1973 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 1972 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1971 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 1970 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 9 |
| 1969 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1968 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 2 |
| 1967 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1966 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% | 7 |
| 1965 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1964 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1962 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1961 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1960 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1959 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1958 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 4 |
| 1957 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1956 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1955 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1954 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 12 |
| 1953 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1952 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1951 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1950 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1942 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 1941 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 1940 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 1939 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 7 |
| 1938 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 1937 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 10 |
| 1936 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1935 | 17 | 1 | 5.9% | 9 |
| 1934 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1933 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1932 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1931 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1930 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1929 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1927 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1926 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1924 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1923 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1922 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1921 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1920 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1914 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1913 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1912 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 1911 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1910 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1909 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, 01 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Oct 18:45 | Germany | vs | Serbia | – / – / – | 17.5% |
|
| Sun, 04 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 04 Oct 18:45 | Greece | vs | Germany | – / – / – | 27.9% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.