What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 156 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), France drew 27 where the draw model expected 30.7 from those particular fixtures — about 4 fewer, or 0.7 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 36.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 07 Sep 2002 → 18 Feb 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 18 Nov 2014 → 15 Jun 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 17 | 11 Oct 1980 → 21 Jun 1982 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 16 | 13 Nov 2025 → 28 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 15 Nov 2000 → 06 Oct 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 16 Aug 2006 → 22 Aug 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 12 | 29 Feb 1984 → 08 Dec 1984 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 16 Oct 2018 → 11 Oct 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 15 Jul 1966 → 27 Sep 1967 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 17 Jun 2010 → 25 Mar 2011 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 500 | 100 | 20.0% | 4 | 16 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 125 | 27 | 21.6% | 2 | 6 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 120 | 28 | 23.3% | 0 | 7 |
| FIFA World Cup | 81 | 14 | 17.3% | 8 | 8 |
| UEFA European Championship | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 1 | 6 |
| UEFA Nations League | 30 | 5 | 16.7% | 2 | 5 |
| Confederations Cup | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 | 5 |
| Olympic Games | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 2 |
| Tournoi de France | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 0 | 2 |
| African Friendship Games | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 | 5 |
| Inter-Allied Games | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| King Hassan II Tournament | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Brazil Independence Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Kirin Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| CONMEBOL–UEFA Cup of Champions | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Évence Coppée Trophy | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% | 14 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 2024 | 16 | 5 | 31.3% | 5 |
| 2023 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 2022 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 9 |
| 2021 | 16 | 6 | 37.5% | 5 |
| 2020 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 2019 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 8 |
| 2018 | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 2017 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 2016 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 6 |
| 2015 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2014 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 3 |
| 2013 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2012 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 4 |
| 2011 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% | 2 |
| 2010 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 8 |
| 2009 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2008 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 2007 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2006 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 6 |
| 2005 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 4 |
| 2004 | 15 | 7 | 46.7% | 3 |
| 2003 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% | 14 |
| 2002 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 4 |
| 2001 | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 12 |
| 2000 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 1999 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 4 |
| 1998 | 18 | 6 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1997 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1996 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 6 |
| 1995 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1994 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 4 |
| 1993 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1992 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 5 |
| 1991 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1990 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1989 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1988 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 1987 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1986 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 3 |
| 1985 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1984 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 12 |
| 1983 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 1 |
| 1982 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1981 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1980 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1979 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1978 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 7 |
| 1977 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 1976 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1975 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1974 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1973 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1972 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1971 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1970 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1969 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1968 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1966 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 1965 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1964 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1963 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 8 |
| 1962 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1960 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 1959 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1958 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 8 |
| 1957 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1956 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1955 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1954 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1953 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1952 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 1951 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1950 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1948 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1947 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1946 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1945 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1944 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1942 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1940 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1939 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1938 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1937 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1936 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1935 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1934 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1933 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1932 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1931 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1930 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 8 |
| 1929 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1928 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1927 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1926 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1925 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1924 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1923 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1922 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1921 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1920 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1919 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1914 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1913 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1912 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1911 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1910 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1909 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1907 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1906 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1905 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1904 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 02 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 02 Oct 18:45 | France | vs | Italy | – / – / – | 19.5% |
|
| Mon, 05 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Oct 18:45 | France | vs | Belgium | – / – / – | 23.0% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.