What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 108 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Andorra drew 22 where the draw model expected 19.7 from those particular fixtures — about 2 more, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 24.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | 28 Mar 2007 → 14 Oct 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 29 May 2010 → 11 Oct 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 09 Sep 2014 → 28 Mar 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 26 Apr 2000 → 06 Oct 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 02 Sep 2021 → 03 Jun 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 02 Jun 2012 → 26 Mar 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 27 Mar 1999 → 06 Feb 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 25 Mar 2024 → 16 Nov 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 13 Oct 2020 → 03 Jun 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 22 Mar 2019 → 14 Oct 2019 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 70 | 4 | 5.7% | 2 | 10 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 70 | 3 | 4.3% | 5 | 10 |
| Friendly | 62 | 12 | 19.4% | 3 | 4 |
| UEFA Nations League | 24 | 10 | 41.7% | 0 | 3 |
| Malta International Tournament | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 0 | 1 |
| FIFA Series | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 2025 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2024 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 2023 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2022 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 2021 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 7 |
| 2020 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2019 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 2018 | 9 | 6 | 66.7% | 2 |
| 2017 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 2016 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 2015 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 2014 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2013 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 2012 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 2011 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2010 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2009 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2008 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2007 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 2006 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2005 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2004 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 2003 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2002 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2001 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2000 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1999 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1998 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1997 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1996 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 04 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 04 Oct 16:00 | Malta | vs | Andorra | – / – / – | 23.4% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.