▦ FDB4
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Match official

M Thorpe

2002–2008 · 3 competitions
Matches 190
Draws 55
Draw % 29.0% +4.6 pts vs 24.3%
Comps 3
Luck or skill how this is worked out ›

Over 190 matches (Aug 2002 – Oct 2008), M Thorpe drew 55 where the draw model expected 53.5 from those particular fixtures — about 1 more, or 0.2 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.

A flat league average would have expected 51.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.

By competition 3 competitions
Competition Matches Draws Draw %
ENG · League One 66 23 34.8%
ENG · League Two 64 11 17.2%
ENG · Championship 60 21 35.0%
By season 7 seasons
Season Matches Draws Draw %
2008/09 8 0 0.0%
2007/08 33 6 18.2%
2006/07 33 12 36.4%
2005/06 35 10 28.6%
2004/05 25 10 40.0%
2003/04 29 9 31.0%
2002/03 27 8 29.6%
Latest matches last 50

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