M Corlett
Over 101 matches (Aug 2022 – Oct 2026), M Corlett drew 18 where the draw model expected 27.2 from those particular fixtures — about 9 fewer, or 2.1 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 5 times running. A flat league average would have expected 27.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| Competition | Matches | Draws | Draw % |
|---|---|---|---|
| ENG · League One | 38 | 2 | 5.3% |
| ENG · League Two | 38 | 10 | 26.3% |
| ENG · National League | 19 | 6 | 31.6% |
| ENG · Championship | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Season | Matches | Draws | Draw % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026/27 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2025/26 | 31 | 2 | 6.5% |
| 2024/25 | 24 | 5 | 20.8% |
| 2023/24 | 21 | 5 | 23.8% |
| 2022/23 | 18 | 6 | 33.3% |
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | Blackburn Rovers | 2–0 | Wrexham | H | ENG · Championship |
| 14 Oct 2026 | Queens Park Rangers | 4–1 | Derby County | H | ENG · Championship |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons | 1–5 | Reading | A | ENG · League One |
| 03 Oct 2026 | Grimsby Town | 1–2 | Shrewsbury Town | A | ENG · League Two |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Oldham Athletic | 1–2 | Chesterfield | A | ENG · League Two |
| 05 Sep 2026 | Doncaster Rovers | 2–3 | Plymouth Argyle | A | ENG · League One |
| 01 Sep 2026 | Swindon Town | 3–1 | Port Vale | H | ENG · League Two |
| 02 May 2026 | Bolton Wanderers | 2–3 | Luton Town | A | ENG · League One |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Wigan Athletic | 0–1 | AFC Wimbledon | A | ENG · League One |
| 18 Apr 2026 | Reading | 1–3 | Cardiff City | A | ENG · League One |
| 11 Apr 2026 | Plymouth Argyle | 2–2 | Exeter City | D | ENG · League One |
| 06 Apr 2026 | Leyton Orient | 1–2 | Huddersfield Town | A | ENG · League One |
| 02 Apr 2026 | Cambridge United | 1–1 | Swindon Town | D | ENG · League Two |
| 21 Mar 2026 | Mansfield Town | 4–1 | Northampton Town | H | ENG · League One |
| 14 Mar 2026 | Notts County | 2–3 | Chesterfield | A | ENG · League Two |
| 07 Mar 2026 | Bolton Wanderers | 3–2 | Wycombe Wanderers | H | ENG · League One |
| 28 Feb 2026 | Oxford United | 2–1 | West Bromwich Albion | H | ENG · Championship |
| 21 Feb 2026 | Stockport County | 4–2 | Wigan Athletic | H | ENG · League One |
| 10 Feb 2026 | Shrewsbury Town | 2–1 | Barrow | H | ENG · League Two |
| 31 Jan 2026 | Watford | 0–2 | Swansea City | A | ENG · Championship |
| 27 Jan 2026 | Huddersfield Town | 1–0 | Luton Town | H | ENG · League One |
| 22 Jan 2026 | Lincoln City | 2–1 | Burton Albion | H | ENG · League One |
| 04 Jan 2026 | Derby County | 1–2 | Wrexham | A | ENG · Championship |
| 01 Jan 2026 | Rotherham United | 0–2 | Peterborough United | A | ENG · League One |
| 29 Dec 2025 | Norwich City | 0–1 | Watford | A | ENG · Championship |
| 26 Dec 2025 | Blackpool | 1–0 | Doncaster Rovers | H | ENG · League One |
| 13 Dec 2025 | Newport County | 0–2 | Fleetwood Town | A | ENG · League Two |
| 11 Nov 2025 | York City | 4–1 | Rochdale | H | ENG · National League |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Northampton Town | 0–1 | Luton Town | A | ENG · League One |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Plymouth Argyle | 1–2 | AFC Wimbledon | A | ENG · League One |
| 04 Oct 2025 | Cardiff City | 4–3 | Leyton Orient | H | ENG · League One |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Crawley Town | 1–2 | Barrow | A | ENG · League Two |
| 13 Sep 2025 | Burton Albion | 0–1 | Lincoln City | A | ENG · League One |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Exeter City | 3–0 | Peterborough United | H | ENG · League One |
| 19 Aug 2025 | Walsall | 0–1 | Grimsby Town | A | ENG · League Two |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Salford City | 2–1 | Accrington Stanley | H | ENG · League Two |
| 09 Aug 2025 | Reading | 0–2 | Huddersfield Town | A | ENG · League One |
| 02 Aug 2025 | Blackpool | 2–3 | Stevenage | A | ENG · League One |
| 03 May 2025 | Crewe Alexandra | 0–1 | Walsall | A | ENG · League Two |
| 26 Apr 2025 | Chesterfield | 4–1 | Morecambe | H | ENG · League Two |
| 21 Apr 2025 | Burton Albion | 1–2 | Birmingham City | A | ENG · League One |
| 29 Mar 2025 | Walsall | 1–1 | AFC Wimbledon | D | ENG · League Two |
| 15 Mar 2025 | Crewe Alexandra | 1–1 | Doncaster Rovers | D | ENG · League Two |
| 08 Mar 2025 | Wigan Athletic | 1–0 | Cambridge United | H | ENG · League One |
| 01 Mar 2025 | Harrogate Town | 2–1 | Accrington Stanley | H | ENG · League Two |
| 23 Feb 2025 | Mansfield Town | 1–2 | Wrexham | A | ENG · League One |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Leyton Orient | 3–2 | Lincoln City | H | ENG · League One |
| 08 Feb 2025 | Salford City | 2–0 | Tranmere Rovers | H | ENG · League Two |
| 25 Jan 2025 | Fleetwood Town | 1–2 | Carlisle United | A | ENG · League Two |
| 04 Jan 2025 | Cambridge United | 0–1 | Bristol Rovers | A | ENG · League One |