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// Elo ratings 545,302 matches rated · 14,933 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,302
Teams rated14,933
Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.96% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,738 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.40% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.56% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.96% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,207 27.40% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,874 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,068 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,738 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,821 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,165 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,393 20.56% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,472 13.96% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,564 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.81% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.60% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.97% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.39% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,166 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,610 25.81% 0 — — —
100–149 8,283 24.60% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,401 19.97% 0 — — —
300+ 6,491 12.39% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,122 2,143 2026-10-01
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,073 2,162 2026-09-19
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,072 2,097 2026-10-01
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,018 2,050 2026-10-01
25 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
26 POR · Porto 2,014 2,086 2026-10-02
27 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 1,996 2,200 2026-10-02
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,075 2,088 2026-10-01
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
9 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
10 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
11 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
12 NED · Netherlands 2,018 2,177 2026-10-01
13 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
14 NOR · Norway 1,984 2,053 2026-10-01
15 GER · Germany 1,968 2,254 2026-10-01
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
22 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
23 AUT · Austria 1,920 1,956 2026-10-01
24 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
25 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
26 DEN · Denmark 1,892 2,018 2026-10-01
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,597 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
1351 FC Kiffen FIN 1,531 1,541 16 2025-04-16
1352 GPS Omens USA 1,531 1,531 3 2017-05-31
1353 Bucovia Bukowa POL 1,531 1,542 8 1997-09-10
1354 Kujawiak Włocławek POL 1,531 1,544 12 2005-11-30
1355 FC Lasten 2 FIN 1,531 1,531 4 2026-03-07
1356 Villefranche FRA 1,531 1,531 8 2019-02-06
1357 Popești-Leordeni ROU 1,531 1,537 17 2026-08-12
1358 Karacabey Belediyespor TUR 1,531 1,544 25 2025-12-03
1359 Cork Athletic IRL 1,531 1,581 71 1957-03-13
1360 FC Saint-Jean GE SUI 1,530 1,530 12 1993-09-04
1361 Club Boca Río Gallegos ARG 1,530 1,540 6 2012-12-05
1362 LoPa FIN 1,530 1,547 23 2025-03-12
1363 FC Nile FIN 1,530 1,539 3 2025-03-29
1364 FC Le Lorrain BEL 1,530 1,551 11 1979-08-12
1365 USI Dopolavoro Genève SUI 1,530 1,559 26 1940-12-29
1366 Wangen bei Olten SUI 1,530 1,560 37 2006-09-30
1367 VIFK FIN 1,530 1,552 21 2025-04-15
1368 Racing Butsel BEL 1,530 1,532 7 2012-08-12
1369 Włókniarz Kietrz POL 1,530 1,558 8 2002-08-06
1370 Liaoning Tieren CHN 1,530 1,566 42 2026-09-12
1371 Jong AZ NED 1,530 1,536 3 2007-01-25
1372 Impuls ARM 1,530 1,569 84 2013-12-01
1373 JyTy FIN 1,530 1,552 17 2026-02-22
1374 Eendracht Aalst BEL 1,530 1,587 343 2022-09-25
1375 IL Øygard NOR 1,530 1,530 4 2026-09-16
1376 Gelbison ITA 1,530 1,548 40 2026-08-11
1377 Waldhof Mannheim GER 1,530 1,619 559 2026-09-24
1378 AC Pavia ITA 1,530 1,535 5 2015-12-02
1379 Arendal Fotball NOR 1,530 1,542 69 2026-09-16
1380 Thisted FC DEN 1,530 1,579 30 2025-09-24
1381 FC Ambrosiana Lausanne SUI 1,530 1,553 16 1950-10-15
1382 Aetos Orfano GRE 1,530 1,544 4 2019-10-02
1383 Nousu FIN 1,530 1,530 2 2026-02-22
1384 Ethnikos Asteras GRE 1,530 1,638 233 2012-10-24
1385 Van ARM 1,530 1,624 206 2026-09-26
1386 KPV -j FIN 1,530 1,548 3 2014-03-01
1387 University of Tokyo LB JPN 1,530 1,545 17 1958-09-09
1388 R. Stade Brainois BEL 1,530 1,550 35 2018-08-25
1389 Kochi United JPN 1,530 1,560 21 2025-06-11
1390 K. AC Betekom BEL 1,530 1,560 28 2018-08-12
1391 Pontevedra CF ESP 1,530 1,594 62 2026-08-19
1392 Comuna Recea ROU 1,530 1,552 11 2020-10-21
1393 UE Llagostera ESP 1,530 1,595 94 2020-12-16
1394 Amarante POR 1,530 1,530 8 2026-09-20
1395 Burgdorf SUI 1,530 1,565 112 1997-08-17
1396 K. Olympia SC Wijgmaal BEL 1,530 1,566 79 2018-08-12
1397 Turun Palloseura M35 FIN 1,529 1,543 6 2024-04-16
1398 Al Ettifaq KSA 1,529 1,594 85 2026-09-11
1399 Upton Park ENG 1,529 1,581 39 1886-11-20
1400 Olimpia Poznań POL 1,529 1,550 25 1995-10-25
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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