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// Elo ratings 545,224 matches rated · 14,930 teams
Strength, and what it says about draws

How strong is a team, and how often do equals draw?

Every match in the database is replayed in date order. Both sides start at 1500; the winner takes points from the loser, more when the result was a surprise and more again when the margin was wide. A team's rating is therefore what its results have earned, and the gap between two ratings before kick-off is a measure of how uneven the match should be. The tables below show how often each size of gap ended level.

Matches rated545,224
Teams rated14,930
Evenly matched draw 27.40% gap under 25
Mismatch draw 13.95% gap 300+
Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 495,671 matches
Clubs: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — bookmaker's figure 28.79% 0–24 — drew 27.40% 27.4% 0–24 25–49 — bookmaker's figure 28.66% 25–49 — drew 26.31% 26.3% 25–49 50–74 — bookmaker's figure 28.34% 50–74 — drew 25.02% 25.0% 50–74 75–99 — bookmaker's figure 27.91% 75–99 — drew 25.22% 25.2% 75–99 100–149 — bookmaker's figure 26.93% 100–149 — drew 25.25% 25.3% 100–149 150–199 — bookmaker's figure 25.26% 150–199 — drew 23.72% 23.7% 150–199 200–299 — bookmaker's figure 22.31% 200–299 — drew 20.57% 20.6% 200–299 300+ — bookmaker's figure 16.00% 300+ — drew 13.95% 14.0% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew bookmaker's figure How often each rating gap actually drew, beside the draw chance the closing odds implied.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 67,203 27.40% 22,161 29.39% 28.79% -1.08%
25–49 72,871 26.31% 21,925 28.62% 28.66% -3.14%
50–74 79,058 25.02% 20,405 28.41% 28.34% -2.77%
75–99 64,726 25.22% 18,710 28.04% 27.91% -2.60%
100–149 86,813 25.25% 29,683 26.91% 26.93% -3.11%
150–199 53,161 23.72% 20,326 25.50% 25.26% -2.52%
200–299 49,383 20.57% 19,016 21.77% 22.31% -5.79%
300+ 22,456 13.95% 8,643 14.52% 16.00% -12.49%

Evenly matched sides draw far more often than mismatched ones — the first row against the last is the whole story. The last three columns compare that with the betting market on the matches that carry a price: the bookmaker's figure tracks reality closely, and betting every draw loses money in every row. "Drew" and "Drew (those)" differ because priced matches are top divisions, which draw slightly more often.

National teams: how often each rating gap drew 49,553 matches
National teams: how often each rating gap drew 0% 15% 30% drew 0–24 — drew 27.45% 27.5% 0–24 25–49 — drew 25.56% 25.6% 25–49 50–74 — drew 26.84% 26.8% 50–74 75–99 — drew 25.80% 25.8% 75–99 100–149 — drew 24.59% 24.6% 100–149 150–199 — drew 22.98% 23.0% 150–199 200–299 — drew 19.97% 20.0% 200–299 300+ — drew 12.37% 12.4% 300+ rating gap before kick-off
drew How often each rating gap actually drew.
Rating gap Matches Drew With odds Drew (those) Bookmaker's figure Return if you bet every draw
0–24 5,165 27.45% 0 — — —
25–49 5,086 25.56% 0 — — —
50–74 5,101 26.84% 0 — — —
75–99 4,608 25.80% 0 — — —
100–149 8,280 24.59% 0 — — —
150–199 6,426 22.98% 0 — — —
200–299 8,397 19.97% 0 — — —
300+ 6,490 12.37% 0 — — —
Top clubs by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 GER · FC Bayern München 2,315 2,328 2026-09-18
2 ENG · Manchester City 2,253 2,331 2026-09-20
3 ENG · Arsenal 2,244 2,293 2026-09-19
4 ESP · Barcelona 2,209 2,243 2026-09-19
5 FRA · Paris Saint-Germain 2,154 2,231 2026-09-20
6 ESP · Real Madrid 2,139 2,237 2026-09-20
7 ITA · Inter Milan 2,127 2,202 2026-09-19
8 NOR · FK Bodø/Glimt 2,120 2,143 2026-09-20
9 ENG · Brighton & Hove Albion 2,103 2,103 2026-09-19
10 ENG · Liverpool 2,098 2,285 2026-09-20
11 GER · Borussia Dortmund 2,091 2,116 2026-09-19
12 ENG · Aston Villa 2,073 2,162 2026-09-19
13 NOR · Viking FK 2,071 2,097 2026-09-20
14 ENG · Brentford 2,068 2,068 2026-09-18
15 ENG · Manchester United 2,065 2,147 2026-09-20
16 ENG · Bournemouth 2,058 2,073 2026-09-20
17 GER · Bayer Leverkusen 2,055 2,190 2026-09-20
18 POR · Sporting CP 2,054 2,145 2026-09-19
19 ESP · Atlético Madrid 2,042 2,134 2026-09-20
20 ENG · Leeds United 2,030 2,033 2026-09-20
21 POR · SL Benfica 2,026 2,071 2026-09-20
22 ITA · AS Roma 2,024 2,070 2026-09-19
23 ENG · Chelsea 2,022 2,185 2026-09-18
24 BEL · Royale Union Saint-Gilloise 2,018 2,037 2026-09-20
25 GER · VfB Stuttgart 2,016 2,050 2026-09-25
26 ENG · Newcastle United 2,014 2,141 2026-09-19
27 POR · Porto 2,010 2,086 2026-09-20
28 RUS · Zenit Saint Petersburg 2,009 2,011 2026-09-27
29 ENG · Everton 2,007 2,009 2026-09-19
30 ITA · Juventus 2,005 2,200 2026-09-20
Top national teams by current rating
# Team Rating Peak Last match
1 ESP · Spain 2,304 2,304 2026-09-29
2 ARG · Argentina 2,181 2,198 2026-07-19
3 ENG · England 2,164 2,174 2026-09-29
4 FRA · France 2,150 2,209 2026-09-28
5 MAR · Morocco 2,083 2,106 2026-07-09
6 POR · Portugal 2,051 2,088 2026-09-27
7 COL · Colombia 2,046 2,115 2026-07-07
8 NED · Netherlands 2,025 2,177 2026-09-27
9 SUI · Switzerland 2,024 2,032 2026-09-29
10 JPN · Japan 2,022 2,063 2026-06-29
11 BRA · Brazil 2,021 2,212 2026-07-05
12 BEL · Belgium 2,021 2,175 2026-09-28
13 NOR · Norway 2,016 2,053 2026-09-27
14 MEX · Mexico 2,015 2,054 2026-07-05
15 GER · Germany 1,957 2,254 2026-09-27
16 CRO · Croatia 1,955 2,036 2026-09-29
17 NGA · Nigeria 1,950 1,961 2026-06-10
18 AUS · Australia 1,949 2,002 2026-07-03
19 IRN · Iran 1,934 2,017 2026-06-26
20 ECU · Ecuador 1,932 1,977 2026-06-30
21 AUT · Austria 1,925 1,956 2026-09-27
22 ITA · Italy 1,923 2,095 2026-09-28
23 SEN · Senegal 1,922 1,990 2026-07-01
24 DEN · Denmark 1,916 2,018 2026-09-27
25 ALG · Algeria 1,908 1,961 2026-07-02
26 KOR · South Korea 1,900 1,985 2026-06-24
27 EGY · Egypt 1,888 1,962 2026-07-07
28 CIV · Ivory Coast 1,887 2,007 2026-06-30
29 TUR · Turkey 1,882 1,978 2026-09-28
30 URU · Uruguay 1,881 2,053 2026-06-26
All rated teams 14,594 teams
▸ Reset
# Team Country Rating Peak Matches Last match
951 Old Wykehamists ENG 1,548 1,565 13 1887-10-29
952 Monarcas Morelia MEX 1,548 1,600 286 2020-03-14
953 PFC CSKA Sofia BUL 1,548 1,652 239 2022-06-24
954 FK Vėtra LTU 1,548 1,563 8 2009-09-09
955 Alton United Belfast IRL 1,548 1,548 4 1923-03-17
956 Järvenpään Palloseura/47 FIN 1,548 1,548 5 2025-04-09
957 Muğlaspor TUR 1,548 1,558 26 2025-12-03
958 Velež Mostar BIH 1,548 1,557 28 1988-09-09
959 Louisville City FC USA 1,548 1,548 32 2026-04-29
960 St. Gallen U-21 SUI 1,548 1,563 8 2002-10-12
961 Alians Lypova Dolyna UKR 1,548 1,551 11 2021-10-28
962 Cuiabá EC BRA 1,547 1,654 189 2026-03-04
963 Monterosi ITA 1,547 1,547 149 2026-04-26
964 Chirk AAA ENG 1,547 1,560 14 1887-12-31
965 Stade Nyonnais SUI 1,547 1,584 152 2025-12-02
966 AB DEN 1,547 1,574 65 2025-09-09
967 PP-70 FIN 1,547 1,579 29 2026-03-07
968 Zbrojovka Brno CZE 1,547 1,614 45 2026-07-08
969 Väsby IK SWE 1,547 1,579 12 2004-05-06
970 FC Helsingør DEN 1,547 1,589 70 2025-08-05
971 ASK Ebreichsdorf AUT 1,547 1,557 9 2019-10-30
972 Barbastro ESP 1,547 1,556 7 2026-08-08
973 KeuPa FIN 1,547 1,547 8 2025-04-05
974 Muhafızgücü TUR 1,547 1,558 7 1978-09-10
975 Steaua București ROU 1,547 1,817 299 2026-08-12
976 Beitar Jerusalem ISR 1,547 1,571 52 2025-09-09
977 SD Amorebieta ESP 1,547 1,573 97 2024-10-31
978 Panionios GRE 1,547 1,761 1,119 2026-08-12
979 SKN St. Pölten AUT 1,546 1,677 286 2026-07-24
980 Lokomotiv Sofia BUL 1,546 1,581 50 2011-09-09
981 Inter Baku AZE 1,546 1,601 32 2018-08-19
982 Wuxi Wugo CHN 1,546 1,548 12 2026-06-20
983 Allianssi Vantaa FIN 1,546 1,557 17 2015-03-08
984 Inter Bratislava SVK 1,546 1,584 58 2001-08-22
985 Olbia ITA 1,546 1,583 240 2024-04-28
986 R. CS Visétois BEL 1,546 1,573 65 2014-08-17
987 CS Sedan Ardennes FRA 1,546 1,711 592 2021-04-07
988 Kajaanin Palloilijat FIN 1,546 1,548 9 2024-05-08
989 FC Baia Mare ROU 1,546 1,552 83 2026-08-12
990 Virtus Verona ITA 1,546 1,582 285 2026-08-07
991 R. Tilleur FC BEL 1,546 1,600 73 2018-08-11
992 Giovanni Calciatori Luganesi SUI 1,546 1,561 9 1929-12-01
993 Real Murcia ESP 1,546 1,657 567 2026-08-12
994 Næsby BK DEN 1,546 1,586 27 2025-08-12
995 AEL Larissa GRE 1,546 1,713 688 2026-08-22
996 EPS/Reservi FIN 1,546 1,571 10 2025-04-15
997 KFC De Kempen Tielen-Lichtaart BEL 1,546 1,559 23 2018-08-19
998 Dumbrăvița ROU 1,545 1,556 14 2026-08-12
999 ASV Geel BEL 1,545 1,570 13 2018-08-26
1000 Wettingen SUI 1,545 1,645 130 2002-08-24
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Reading betting odds why the three prices add up to more than 100%

The prices on the fixtures page are decimal odds: what one unit returns, your stake included. At 3.50, a 20 Kč bet on the draw returns 70 Kč — 50 profit plus the 20 back.

Turn a price into a probability by dividing it into 1. 1 / 3.50 = 28.6%: that is how likely the bookmaker's price says a draw is. Do it for all three results of a match and they should add up to 100%. They never do.

The excess is the bookmaker's margin — its built-in profit, also called the overround. Spread the excess back out and you get the "fair" figures used in the tables above.

This is why betting every draw in any row above loses money: the prices are already close to what really happens, minus the margin. To profit you need odds longer than 1 / your own probability — on a team that draws a quarter of the time, better than 4.00.

Result Odds 1 / odds Margin removed
Home win 2.00 50.0% 48.3%
Draw 3.50 28.6% 27.6%
Away win 4.00 25.0% 24.1%
Total — 103.6% 100.0%

The three prices imply 103.6% of probability between them, so about 3.6% belongs to the bookmaker whatever happens. That cut is taken on every bet, win or lose, which is why the "betting them all" column above is negative even where the odds look generous.

FDB4 rates every team with Elo, replayed in date order over more than half a million matches: both sides start at 1500, the winner takes points from the loser, and a surprise or a wide margin moves the rating further. The page ranks the strongest clubs and national teams by current rating and peak, then shows how often each size of rating gap actually ended level — evenly matched sides draw roughly twice as often as mismatched ones. Alongside it sits the betting market's own figure for the same matches and a plain explanation of how decimal odds, implied probability and the bookmaker's margin fit together.

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