1. FC Union Berlin
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 463 matches (Feb 2015 – Sep 2026), 1. FC Union Berlin drew 129 where the draw model expected 116.0 from those particular fixtures — about 13 more, or 1.4 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 118.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 06 May 2023 → 04 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 08 Sep 2022 → 06 Nov 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 31 Aug 2019 → 08 Dec 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 23 Nov 2024 → 26 Jan 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 13 Nov 2022 → 11 Feb 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 15 Jan 2022 → 05 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 17 Dec 2019 → 24 Feb 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 16 Mar 2012 → 06 May 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 09 May 2003 → 19 Sep 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 16 Apr 2017 → 04 Aug 2017 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 442 | 132 | 29.9% | 0 | 9 |
| Bundesliga | 242 | 62 | 25.6% | 3 | 15 |
| DFB-Pokal | 40 | 10 | 25.0% | 1 | 5 |
| 3. Liga | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 1 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 18 | 7 | 38.9% | 2 | 2 |
| UEFA Europa League | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 1 | 6 |
| UEFA Champions League | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 1 | 3 |
| UEFA Conference League | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 0 | 5 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33 | 10 | 30.3% | 6 |
| 2025 | 41 | 12 | 29.3% | 6 |
| 2024 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 5 |
| 2023 | 48 | 10 | 20.8% | 19 |
| 2022 | 45 | 7 | 15.6% | 15 |
| 2021 | 46 | 16 | 34.8% | 7 |
| 2020 | 35 | 11 | 31.4% | 7 |
| 2019 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 13 |
| 2018 | 36 | 17 | 47.2% | 4 |
| 2017 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 8 |
| 2016 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 7 |
| 2015 | 36 | 13 | 36.1% | 5 |
| 2014 | 35 | 13 | 37.1% | 5 |
| 2013 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 6 |
| 2012 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2011 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 5 |
| 2010 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 7 |
| 2009 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 8 |
| 2008 | 20 | 7 | 35.0% | 4 |
| 2007 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2004 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 6 |
| 2003 | 34 | 13 | 38.2% | 9 |
| 2002 | 33 | 10 | 30.3% | 7 |
| 2001 | 22 | 6 | 27.3% | 5 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 13:30 |
1. FC Union Berlin
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 13:30 |
1. FC Union Berlin
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 19.5% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 13:30 |
Augsburg
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 19.5% |
|
| Tue, 27 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 27 Oct 19:45 |
1. FC Köln
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.8% |
|
| Sun, 01 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Nov 14:30 |
1. FC Union Berlin
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.2% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 08 Nov 16:30 |
SC Freiburg
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 18.3% |
|
| Sat, 21 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 21 Nov 14:30 |
1. FC Union Berlin
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.0% |
|
| Sat, 20 Mar 2027 | ||||||
| 20 Mar |
RB Leipzig
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 17.5% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.