Swansea City
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 575 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Swansea City drew 138 where the draw model expected 154.8 from those particular fixtures — about 17 fewer, or 1.6 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 152.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 26 Nov 2016 → 18 Mar 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 25 Mar 2005 → 13 Sep 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 16 | 02 Feb 2019 → 22 Apr 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 16 | 06 Apr 1996 → 21 Sep 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 29 Mar 2014 → 23 Sep 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 05 Nov 2025 → 04 Jan 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 06 Oct 2018 → 26 Dec 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 29 Oct 2002 → 25 Jan 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 21 Mar 1995 → 15 Aug 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 07 Aug 2010 → 28 Sep 2010 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Championship | 514 | 143 | 27.8% | 3 | 14 |
| League Two | 368 | 93 | 25.3% | 8 | 12 |
| League One | 322 | 93 | 28.9% | 4 | 12 |
| Premier League | 266 | 66 | 24.8% | 5 | 17 |
| FA Cup | 255 | 52 | 20.4% | 0 | 7 |
| League Cup | 161 | 31 | 19.3% | 1 | 5 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 2 | 6 |
| Club Friendlies | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 3 | 5 |
| UEFA Europa League | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 1 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 6 |
| 2025 | 54 | 10 | 18.5% | 11 |
| 2024 | 49 | 10 | 20.4% | 9 |
| 2023 | 51 | 14 | 27.5% | 7 |
| 2022 | 51 | 17 | 33.3% | 11 |
| 2021 | 52 | 10 | 19.2% | 9 |
| 2020 | 45 | 15 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2019 | 53 | 13 | 24.5% | 16 |
| 2018 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 13 |
| 2017 | 44 | 6 | 13.6% | 11 |
| 2016 | 46 | 7 | 15.2% | 9 |
| 2015 | 45 | 14 | 31.1% | 7 |
| 2014 | 44 | 7 | 15.9% | 14 |
| 2013 | 55 | 18 | 32.7% | 9 |
| 2012 | 45 | 10 | 22.2% | 11 |
| 2011 | 44 | 12 | 27.3% | 8 |
| 2010 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 12 |
| 2009 | 50 | 17 | 34.0% | 8 |
| 2008 | 57 | 23 | 40.4% | 8 |
| 2007 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 5 |
| 2006 | 50 | 16 | 32.0% | 6 |
| 2005 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 17 |
| 2004 | 53 | 12 | 22.6% | 7 |
| 2003 | 49 | 14 | 28.6% | 10 |
| 2002 | 47 | 11 | 23.4% | 10 |
| 2001 | 52 | 13 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2000 | 47 | 16 | 34.0% | 9 |
| 1999 | 56 | 14 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 1998 | 48 | 16 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1997 | 49 | 8 | 16.3% | 12 |
| 1996 | 53 | 12 | 22.6% | 16 |
| 1995 | 51 | 14 | 27.5% | 13 |
| 1994 | 54 | 17 | 31.5% | 10 |
| 1993 | 30 | 9 | 30.0% | 7 |
| 1992 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1991 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 6 |
| 1990 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1989 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1988 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1987 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1986 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1985 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1984 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1983 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1982 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 8 |
| 1981 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1980 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 1979 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1978 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1977 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1976 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1975 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1974 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1973 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1972 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1971 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1970 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1969 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1968 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1967 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1965 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1964 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 3 |
| 1963 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1961 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1960 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1959 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1957 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1955 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1954 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1953 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1952 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1951 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1950 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1947 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1946 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1939 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1938 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1937 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1936 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1935 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1934 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1933 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1932 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1931 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1930 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1929 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1927 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1926 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1925 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1924 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1922 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1921 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1915 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1914 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 11:30 |
Swansea City
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.8% |
|
| Tue, 13 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 13 Oct 18:45 |
Millwall
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.0% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 14:00 |
Swansea City
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 14:00 |
Queens Park Rangers
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.6% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 15:00 |
Swansea City
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.0% |
|
| Tue, 03 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Nov 19:45 |
Portsmouth
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.6% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 15:00 |
Birmingham City
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.3% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.