Rotherham United
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 571 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Rotherham United drew 136 where the draw model expected 152.9 from those particular fixtures — about 17 fewer, or 1.6 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 153.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 17 Apr 2018 → 22 Sep 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 05 Aug 2017 → 17 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 16 | 05 Nov 2016 → 04 Feb 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 16 | 23 Oct 2015 → 16 Jan 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 27 Jan 2021 → 05 Apr 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 14 | 08 Dec 2012 → 19 Feb 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 28 Sep 2019 → 07 Dec 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 19 Feb 2005 → 30 Apr 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 27 Jan 2001 → 07 Apr 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 27 Feb 2010 → 13 Apr 2010 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League One | 587 | 150 | 25.6% | 1 | 14 |
| Championship | 506 | 150 | 29.6% | 2 | 15 |
| League Two | 422 | 116 | 27.5% | 0 | 17 |
| FA Cup | 239 | 59 | 24.7% | 0 | 4 |
| League Cup | 192 | 39 | 20.3% | 1 | 6 |
| Club Friendlies | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 0 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 7 |
| 2025 | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 6 |
| 2024 | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 10 |
| 2023 | 49 | 17 | 34.7% | 6 |
| 2022 | 51 | 14 | 27.5% | 7 |
| 2021 | 53 | 11 | 20.8% | 14 |
| 2020 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 8 |
| 2019 | 50 | 12 | 24.0% | 13 |
| 2018 | 49 | 14 | 28.6% | 16 |
| 2017 | 51 | 7 | 13.7% | 16 |
| 2016 | 49 | 11 | 22.5% | 9 |
| 2015 | 54 | 9 | 16.7% | 12 |
| 2014 | 49 | 17 | 34.7% | 8 |
| 2013 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 9 |
| 2012 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 10 |
| 2011 | 53 | 15 | 28.3% | 10 |
| 2010 | 47 | 12 | 25.5% | 12 |
| 2009 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 9 |
| 2008 | 52 | 13 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 2007 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 11 |
| 2006 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 8 |
| 2005 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 13 |
| 2004 | 50 | 18 | 36.0% | 6 |
| 2003 | 50 | 17 | 34.0% | 6 |
| 2002 | 52 | 18 | 34.6% | 6 |
| 2001 | 52 | 14 | 26.9% | 13 |
| 2000 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 7 |
| 1999 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 9 |
| 1998 | 52 | 19 | 36.5% | 7 |
| 1997 | 52 | 15 | 28.8% | 8 |
| 1996 | 51 | 16 | 31.4% | 7 |
| 1995 | 50 | 16 | 32.0% | 12 |
| 1994 | 53 | 12 | 22.6% | 8 |
| 1993 | 29 | 8 | 27.6% | 7 |
| 1992 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1991 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1990 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1989 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1988 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1987 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1986 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1985 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1984 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 1983 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1982 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1981 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1980 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1979 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 1978 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 1977 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1976 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1975 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1974 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1973 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1972 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1971 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 1 |
| 1970 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1969 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1968 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1967 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 1 |
| 1966 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1964 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1963 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1962 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1961 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 4 |
| 1960 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 1959 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1957 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1955 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1954 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1953 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1952 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1951 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1945 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1938 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1937 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1936 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1935 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1934 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1933 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1932 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1931 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1930 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1929 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1928 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1927 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1926 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1925 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1923 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 14:00 |
Exeter City
|
vs |
|
2.53 3.35 2.64 | 29.2% |
|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:00 |
Rotherham United
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.0% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 11:30 |
Fleetwood Town
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.3% |
|
| Tue, 20 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 20 Oct 18:45 |
Rotherham United
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.3% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 14:00 |
Rotherham United
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.0% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 15:00 |
Swindon Town
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.