What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 120 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Republic of Ireland drew 40 where the draw model expected 27.0 from those particular fixtures — about 13 more, or 2.9 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 7 times running. A flat league average would have expected 27.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 24 Sep 2022 → 18 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 26 Mar 2024 → 23 Mar 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 05 Sep 1998 → 08 Sep 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 11 Sep 1979 → 10 Sep 1980 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 13 Nov 1991 → 09 Sep 1992 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 17 Nov 2010 → 07 Jun 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 01 Sep 2001 → 16 May 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 11 Jun 1995 → 29 May 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 23 May 1987 → 22 May 1988 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 02 Mar 2010 → 08 Oct 2010 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 271 | 71 | 26.2% | 0 | 7 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 156 | 48 | 30.8% | 0 | 5 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 138 | 41 | 29.7% | 8 | 8 |
| UEFA Nations League | 27 | 7 | 25.9% | 0 | 8 |
| FIFA World Cup | 13 | 8 | 61.5% | 0 | 2 |
| UEFA European Championship | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 3 | 3 |
| USA Cup | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 1 | 3 |
| Brazil Independence Cup | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Nations Cup | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Olympic Games | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Unity Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Kirin Cup | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2025 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 2024 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 2023 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 2022 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2021 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 2 |
| 2020 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 2019 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 2018 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 4 |
| 2017 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 3 |
| 2016 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 4 |
| 2015 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 4 |
| 2014 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 2013 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 5 |
| 2012 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2011 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 7 |
| 2010 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 2009 | 12 | 7 | 58.3% | 3 |
| 2008 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 2007 | 11 | 6 | 54.6% | 3 |
| 2006 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 2005 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2004 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 4 |
| 2003 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 2002 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2001 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2000 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1999 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 7 |
| 1998 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1997 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1996 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 3 |
| 1995 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1994 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 6 |
| 1993 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 1992 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 1991 | 8 | 5 | 62.5% | 1 |
| 1990 | 13 | 7 | 53.8% | 3 |
| 1989 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1988 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 1987 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1986 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1985 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 1984 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1983 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1982 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1981 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1980 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1979 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 5 |
| 1978 | 6 | 4 | 66.7% | 2 |
| 1977 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1976 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1975 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1974 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1973 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1972 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1971 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1970 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1969 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1968 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1967 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1965 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1963 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1962 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1961 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1960 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1959 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1958 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1957 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1956 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1954 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1952 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1951 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1950 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1949 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 1948 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1947 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1946 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1939 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1938 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1937 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1936 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1934 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1932 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1931 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1930 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1929 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1928 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1926 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1924 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 04 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 04 Oct 18:45 | Republic of Ireland | vs | Israel | – / – / – | 20.8% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.