Newport County
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 601 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Newport County drew 153 where the draw model expected 164.9 from those particular fixtures — about 12 fewer, or 1.1 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 161.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25 | 13 Jan 2024 → 27 Jul 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 10 Aug 2024 → 22 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 03 Mar 2026 → 02 May 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 02 Feb 2019 → 30 Mar 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 22 Nov 2014 → 07 Feb 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 27 Mar 2011 → 16 Aug 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 14 Jul 2023 → 26 Aug 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 06 Aug 2022 → 17 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 03 Oct 2020 → 21 Nov 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 21 Apr 2012 → 04 Sep 2012 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League Two | 596 | 156 | 26.2% | 1 | 33 |
| FA Cup | 196 | 44 | 22.5% | 1 | 4 |
| National League | 138 | 39 | 28.3% | 1 | 11 |
| League Cup | 90 | 19 | 21.1% | 0 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 2 | 4 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 12 |
| 2025 | 52 | 12 | 23.1% | 8 |
| 2024 | 52 | 8 | 15.4% | 25 |
| 2023 | 57 | 17 | 29.8% | 10 |
| 2022 | 52 | 11 | 21.2% | 10 |
| 2021 | 52 | 16 | 30.8% | 8 |
| 2020 | 41 | 8 | 19.5% | 10 |
| 2019 | 53 | 16 | 30.2% | 12 |
| 2018 | 53 | 15 | 28.3% | 8 |
| 2017 | 53 | 16 | 30.2% | 8 |
| 2016 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 6 |
| 2015 | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 8 |
| 2014 | 49 | 16 | 32.7% | 6 |
| 2013 | 50 | 15 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 2012 | 44 | 10 | 22.7% | 10 |
| 2011 | 49 | 14 | 28.6% | 11 |
| 2010 | 23 | 8 | 34.8% | 6 |
| 2006 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2001 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1988 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1987 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1986 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1985 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1984 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1983 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1982 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1981 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 1 |
| 1980 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1979 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1978 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1977 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1976 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1975 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1974 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1973 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1972 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1971 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1969 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1968 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1967 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1966 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1963 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1961 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1960 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1959 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1958 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1957 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1956 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1954 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1952 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1951 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1948 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1947 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1946 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1945 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1939 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1938 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1937 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1936 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1934 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1933 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1932 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1929 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1927 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1926 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1925 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1922 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1920 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 14:00 |
Gillingham
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:00 |
Newport County
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 30.3% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 14:00 |
Newport County
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.6% |
|
| Tue, 20 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 20 Oct 18:45 |
Rotherham United
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.3% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 11:30 |
Cheltenham Town
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
| Fri, 30 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 30 Oct 19:45 |
Newport County
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.