Match 25 Jul 2023
ITL · Club Friendlies · 2023
View head-to-head record →
The models what they said before kick-off
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure Yeovil Town Newport County What it means
N — no-draw run 0 0 matches in a row without a draw
Max N 23 25 this team's longest run ever
E — draw debt 0.00 0.00 expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50 16.0% 20.0% draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100 20.0% 23.0% draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all time 24.1% 25.1% share of every match drawn
Draw score 0.061 0.069 the predictor ranking score
Rank 1,890 1,831 position in that ranking

These are each team's figures as they stand today — this match has no stored Cross row, so they are not the numbers that held when it was played.

Team strength · Elo
Yeovil Town 1,321 after: 1,331
Newport County 1,506 after: 1,496
Rating gap -120 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 24.5% 100–149 · 86,783 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles
Expected goals 1.01 – 1.04 home – away
Home win 33.3%
Draw 31.7% every level score added up
Away win 35.0%

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.