Match 22 Jul 2023
ITL · Club Friendlies · 2023
View head-to-head record →
The models what they said before kick-off
Draw predictor · this site's own figures
Figure Bristol City Newport County What it means
N — no-draw run 5 0 matches in a row without a draw
Max N 26 25 this team's longest run ever
E — draw debt 1.19 0.00 expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50 22.0% 20.0% draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100 25.0% 23.0% draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all time 26.8% 25.1% share of every match drawn
Draw score 0.247 0.069 the predictor ranking score
Rank 529 1,832 position in that ranking

These are each team's figures as they stand today — this match has no stored Cross row, so they are not the numbers that held when it was played.

Team strength · Elo
Bristol City 1,696 after: 1,701
Newport County 1,511 after: 1,506
Rating gap +251 home advantage included
Draws at this gap 20.1% 200–299 · 49,653 matches
Goals model · Dixon-Coles
Expected goals 1.20 – 1.04 home – away
Home win 39.0%
Draw 30.0% every level score added up
Away win 31.0%

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.