Mantova 1911
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 243 matches (Aug 2019 – Sep 2026), Mantova 1911 drew 68 where the draw model expected 73.3 from those particular fixtures — about 5 fewer, or 0.7 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 74.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 17 Mar 2026 → 03 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 21 Oct 2023 → 08 Jan 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 24 Nov 2007 → 12 Feb 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 26 Oct 2025 → 21 Dec 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 02 Apr 2022 → 24 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 29 Jan 2022 → 06 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 26 Jul 2025 → 30 Sep 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 17 Jan 2009 → 28 Feb 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 18 Oct 2008 → 29 Nov 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 23 Dec 2022 → 05 Feb 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie B | 291 | 103 | 35.4% | 0 | 11 |
| Serie C | 152 | 45 | 29.6% | 0 | 12 |
| Coppa Italia | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 2 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29 | 6 | 20.7% | 14 |
| 2025 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 10 |
| 2024 | 40 | 14 | 35.0% | 6 |
| 2023 | 37 | 5 | 13.5% | 11 |
| 2022 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 9 |
| 2021 | 41 | 21 | 51.2% | 4 |
| 2020 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 7 |
| 2019 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2010 | 24 | 9 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 2009 | 43 | 18 | 41.9% | 8 |
| 2008 | 44 | 15 | 34.1% | 8 |
| 2007 | 44 | 14 | 31.8% | 5 |
| 2006 | 41 | 16 | 39.0% | 5 |
| 2005 | 21 | 9 | 42.9% | 4 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 11 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 11 Oct 13:00 |
US Catanzaro
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.1% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 15:15 |
Mantova 1911
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.6% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 13:00 |
Virtus Entella
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 32.0% |
|
| Tue, 27 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 27 Oct 19:00 |
Mantova 1911
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.9% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 14:00 |
Modena
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.9% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 16:15 |
Mantova 1911
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 30.8% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.