Hibernian
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 545 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Hibernian drew 144 where the draw model expected 125.7 from those particular fixtures — about 18 more, or 1.9 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 126.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | 24 Nov 1998 → 08 May 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 19 | 27 Aug 2005 → 26 Dec 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 19 | 12 May 2002 → 23 Nov 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 18 | 04 Apr 2026 → 15 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 18 | 07 Feb 2015 → 18 Jul 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 17 | 27 Aug 2022 → 08 Jan 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 14 | 26 Apr 2016 → 17 Sep 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 14 | 21 Oct 1995 → 13 Jan 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 12 | 29 Sep 2012 → 15 Dec 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 29 Dec 2018 → 02 Mar 2019 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish Premiership | 1053 | 297 | 28.2% | 0 | 19 |
| Scottish Championship | 144 | 33 | 22.9% | 0 | 21 |
| Scottish League Cup | 85 | 10 | 11.8% | 2 | 7 |
| Scottish Cup | 84 | 15 | 17.9% | 1 | 5 |
| UEFA Europa League | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 1 | 4 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 33 | 5 | 15.2% | 6 | 6 |
| Club Friendlies | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 3 | 3 |
| UEFA Champions League | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 | 4 |
| UEFA Conference League | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 0 | 3 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31 | 6 | 19.4% | 18 |
| 2025 | 50 | 16 | 32.0% | 6 |
| 2024 | 47 | 13 | 27.7% | 7 |
| 2023 | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 8 |
| 2022 | 45 | 10 | 22.2% | 15 |
| 2021 | 48 | 9 | 18.8% | 10 |
| 2020 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 5 |
| 2019 | 48 | 14 | 29.2% | 10 |
| 2018 | 46 | 16 | 34.8% | 6 |
| 2017 | 51 | 18 | 35.3% | 7 |
| 2016 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 14 |
| 2015 | 46 | 6 | 13.0% | 18 |
| 2014 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 11 |
| 2013 | 45 | 14 | 31.1% | 7 |
| 2012 | 46 | 7 | 15.2% | 12 |
| 2011 | 45 | 11 | 24.4% | 10 |
| 2010 | 46 | 9 | 19.6% | 10 |
| 2009 | 38 | 14 | 36.8% | 9 |
| 2008 | 42 | 9 | 21.4% | 11 |
| 2007 | 46 | 14 | 30.4% | 7 |
| 2006 | 47 | 9 | 19.2% | 8 |
| 2005 | 46 | 6 | 13.0% | 19 |
| 2004 | 46 | 12 | 26.1% | 9 |
| 2003 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 8 |
| 2002 | 45 | 9 | 20.0% | 19 |
| 2001 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 10 |
| 2000 | 40 | 10 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 1999 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 15 |
| 1998 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 6 |
| 1997 | 35 | 11 | 31.4% | 7 |
| 1996 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 5 |
| 1995 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 11 |
| 1994 | 19 | 11 | 57.9% | 3 |
| 1992 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1989 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1978 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1976 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1975 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1974 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1973 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 1972 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1968 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1967 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1965 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1962 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1960 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:00 |
Dundee United
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 14:00 |
Hibernian
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 25 Oct 12:00 |
Hibernian
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 28 Oct 19:45 |
St Mirren
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
| Sun, 01 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Nov 15:00 |
Heart of Midlothian
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 17.5% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 17:45 |
Aberdeen
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.