Dumbarton
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 473 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Dumbarton drew 106 where the draw model expected 109.7 from those particular fixtures — about 4 fewer, or 0.4 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 108.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 16 Dec 1995 → 04 May 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 18 | 01 Mar 2014 → 30 Aug 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 17 | 11 Apr 2026 → 03 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 17 | 20 Oct 2012 → 23 Feb 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 17 | 06 Nov 2007 → 01 Mar 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 16 | 13 Mar 1999 → 18 Sep 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 15 | 25 Sep 2010 → 05 Feb 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 15 | 13 Aug 1995 → 02 Dec 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 14 | 18 Oct 2014 → 24 Jan 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 13 | 08 Apr 2021 → 31 Jul 2021 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish League One | 410 | 86 | 21.0% | 2 | 14 |
| Scottish League Two | 405 | 92 | 22.7% | 13 | 16 |
| Scottish Championship | 252 | 47 | 18.7% | 12 | 19 |
| Scottish League Cup | 65 | 10 | 15.4% | 4 | 4 |
| Scottish Cup | 54 | 7 | 13.0% | 2 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31 | 6 | 19.4% | 17 |
| 2025 | 42 | 8 | 19.1% | 9 |
| 2024 | 45 | 14 | 31.1% | 9 |
| 2023 | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 12 |
| 2022 | 43 | 9 | 20.9% | 8 |
| 2021 | 38 | 5 | 13.2% | 13 |
| 2020 | 23 | 3 | 13.0% | 7 |
| 2019 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 10 |
| 2018 | 44 | 7 | 15.9% | 12 |
| 2017 | 40 | 14 | 35.0% | 4 |
| 2016 | 46 | 14 | 30.4% | 6 |
| 2015 | 39 | 7 | 18.0% | 9 |
| 2014 | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 18 |
| 2013 | 44 | 5 | 11.4% | 11 |
| 2012 | 38 | 6 | 15.8% | 8 |
| 2011 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 7 |
| 2010 | 34 | 3 | 8.8% | 9 |
| 2009 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 6 |
| 2008 | 40 | 14 | 35.0% | 8 |
| 2007 | 40 | 7 | 17.5% | 12 |
| 2006 | 38 | 5 | 13.2% | 11 |
| 2005 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 12 |
| 2004 | 42 | 5 | 11.9% | 13 |
| 2003 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 10 |
| 2002 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 7 |
| 2001 | 37 | 6 | 16.2% | 7 |
| 2000 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 8 |
| 1999 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 16 |
| 1998 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 9 |
| 1997 | 18 | 6 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1996 | 18 | 0 | 0.0% | 18 |
| 1995 | 18 | 2 | 11.1% | 15 |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.