What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 132 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Denmark drew 35 where the draw model expected 28.5 from those particular fixtures — about 6 more, or 1.4 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 30.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 06 Jun 2021 → 25 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 29 Mar 2011 → 15 Aug 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 22 Sep 1976 → 08 Feb 1978 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 25 May 1952 → 04 Oct 1953 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 27 Apr 1983 → 06 Jun 1984 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 02 Jun 1993 → 17 Aug 1994 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 09 Apr 1986 → 29 Oct 1986 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 12 Jan 1969 → 21 Sep 1969 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 07 Oct 2020 → 31 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 12 Sep 1984 → 25 Sep 1985 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 360 | 73 | 20.3% | 1 | 9 |
| Nordic Championship | 142 | 23 | 16.2% | 1 | 3 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 140 | 33 | 23.6% | 0 | 7 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 133 | 31 | 23.3% | 6 | 7 |
| UEFA European Championship | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 1 | 6 |
| UEFA Nations League | 27 | 5 | 18.5% | 3 | 6 |
| FIFA World Cup | 23 | 6 | 26.1% | 2 | 4 |
| Olympic Games | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 2 |
| Malta International Tournament | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 0 | 1 |
| Confederations Cup | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 1 |
| Scania 100 Tournament | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Kirin Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| CONMEBOL–UEFA Cup of Champions | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 2025 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2024 | 14 | 6 | 42.9% | 4 |
| 2023 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 2022 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 8 |
| 2021 | 18 | 1 | 5.6% | 14 |
| 2020 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 2019 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 2018 | 15 | 7 | 46.7% | 2 |
| 2017 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 4 |
| 2016 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2015 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2014 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 2013 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 5 |
| 2012 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 7 |
| 2011 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 2010 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 7 |
| 2009 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 4 |
| 2008 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 2007 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 6 |
| 2006 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2005 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 2004 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% | 2 |
| 2003 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 2002 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 6 |
| 2001 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2000 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 5 |
| 1999 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 2 |
| 1998 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 5 |
| 1997 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1996 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 1995 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 5 |
| 1994 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1993 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 1992 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% | 2 |
| 1991 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1990 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 7 |
| 1989 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1988 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 1987 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1986 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 10 |
| 1985 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1984 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 4 |
| 1983 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1982 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1981 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 1980 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1979 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1978 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1977 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 1976 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1975 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1974 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1973 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1972 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1971 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 1970 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1969 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 10 |
| 1968 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1967 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1966 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 1965 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1964 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 1963 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 1962 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 1961 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1960 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1959 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1958 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1957 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 1956 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1955 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 1954 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1953 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1952 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1951 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1950 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1949 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1948 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1947 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1946 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1945 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1943 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1942 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1941 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1940 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1939 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1938 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1937 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1936 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1934 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1933 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1932 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1931 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1930 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1929 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1928 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1927 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1926 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1924 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1923 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1922 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1921 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1920 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1919 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1918 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1917 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1916 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1915 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1914 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1913 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1912 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1908 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 04 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 04 Oct 18:45 | Wales | vs | Denmark | – / – / – | 27.4% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.