SL Benfica
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 550 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), SL Benfica drew 94 where the draw model expected 101.7 from those particular fixtures — about 8 fewer, or 0.9 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 134.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37 | 18 Jul 2010 → 06 Mar 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 27 | 30 Mar 2019 → 09 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 19 | 20 Dec 2015 → 09 Apr 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 18 | 11 Nov 2018 → 05 Mar 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 18 | 23 Aug 2009 → 09 Nov 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 17 | 26 Sep 2006 → 09 Dec 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 16 | 03 Dec 2005 → 08 Mar 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 15 | 14 Sep 2024 → 07 Dec 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 15 | 27 May 2023 → 24 Oct 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 14 | 30 Apr 2022 → 18 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 1063 | 205 | 19.3% | 6 | 33 |
| UEFA Champions League | 298 | 67 | 22.5% | 10 | 10 |
| UEFA Europa League | 143 | 35 | 24.5% | 1 | 8 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 4 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 3 | 8 |
| Taça de Portugal | 24 | 4 | 16.7% | 4 | 6 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 3 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 | 3 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 0 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 7 |
| 2025 | 59 | 13 | 22.0% | 10 |
| 2024 | 55 | 9 | 16.4% | 15 |
| 2023 | 51 | 8 | 15.7% | 15 |
| 2022 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 14 |
| 2021 | 51 | 11 | 21.6% | 11 |
| 2020 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 11 |
| 2019 | 46 | 3 | 6.5% | 27 |
| 2018 | 40 | 6 | 15.0% | 12 |
| 2017 | 42 | 8 | 19.1% | 10 |
| 2016 | 46 | 6 | 13.0% | 18 |
| 2015 | 40 | 5 | 12.5% | 14 |
| 2014 | 43 | 8 | 18.6% | 8 |
| 2013 | 47 | 8 | 17.0% | 10 |
| 2012 | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 11 |
| 2011 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 9 |
| 2010 | 54 | 4 | 7.4% | 28 |
| 2009 | 54 | 10 | 18.5% | 18 |
| 2008 | 34 | 15 | 44.1% | 5 |
| 2007 | 44 | 12 | 27.3% | 6 |
| 2006 | 48 | 8 | 16.7% | 17 |
| 2005 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 8 |
| 2004 | 44 | 10 | 22.7% | 11 |
| 2003 | 43 | 8 | 18.6% | 11 |
| 2002 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 8 |
| 2001 | 35 | 12 | 34.3% | 6 |
| 2000 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 11 |
| 1999 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 8 |
| 1998 | 44 | 8 | 18.2% | 13 |
| 1997 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 8 |
| 1996 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 6 |
| 1995 | 44 | 8 | 18.2% | 9 |
| 1994 | 24 | 7 | 29.2% | 5 |
| 1993 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1992 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 1991 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1990 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1989 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1988 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1987 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1986 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1985 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1983 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1982 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 4 |
| 1981 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1980 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1979 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1978 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1977 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1976 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1975 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1974 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1973 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1972 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1971 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1970 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1969 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1968 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 1967 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1965 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 1964 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1962 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 1961 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 1960 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1957 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 11 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 11 Oct 17:00 |
SL Benfica
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 14.3% |
|
| Thu, 15 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 15 Oct 19:00 |
SL Benfica
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.8% |
|
| Thu, 22 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 22 Oct 19:00 |
AC Omonia Nicosia
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 15.9% |
|
| Mon, 26 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 26 Oct 18:45 |
CD Santa Clara
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.5% |
|
| Mon, 02 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 02 Nov 20:15 |
SL Benfica
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 13.1% |
|
| Thu, 05 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Nov 20:00 |
SL Benfica
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 17.6% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 08 Nov 20:30 |
CF Estrela da Amadora
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 13.5% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.