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· GER · Bundesliga
No-draw streak
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39
non-draws in a row
03 Apr 2021 → 07 Dec 2021
Was this a feat, or a coincidence?
how this is worked out ›
Draws the model expected
7.4
across these 39 fixtures, one chance each
A flat league rate expected
9.5
the same question, asked without knowing the fixtures
Chance of no draw at all
1 in 4,170
for this run alone — and that overstates it
Runs this long, expected anywhere
4.91
across every run in the database
Each match gets its own draw chance from the five-feature logistic draw model, recalibrated by its isotonic map, and the run's own probability is those chances multiplied — the Poisson-binomial reading. A binomial at the run's average chance would have called it 1.07× more likely, which is the direction that error always goes. The last tile is the figure to quote: a run picked out because it is long is not a coincidence you get to be surprised by — why that is, and what the same question says about every other record here. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
Matches in this run
