R Lewis
Over 315 matches (Aug 2005 – Apr 2023), R Lewis drew 100 where the draw model expected 86.9 from those particular fixtures — about 13 more, or 1.7 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 85.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| Competition | Matches | Draws | Draw % |
|---|---|---|---|
| ENG · League Two | 141 | 51 | 36.2% |
| ENG · League One | 128 | 37 | 28.9% |
| ENG · National League | 27 | 5 | 18.5% |
| ENG · Championship | 19 | 7 | 36.8% |
| Season | Matches | Draws | Draw % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | 27 | 7 | 25.9% |
| 2021/22 | 26 | 7 | 26.9% |
| 2020/21 | 24 | 7 | 29.2% |
| 2019/20 | 16 | 10 | 62.5% |
| 2018/19 | 16 | 6 | 37.5% |
| 2017/18 | 23 | 8 | 34.8% |
| 2016/17 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% |
| 2015/16 | 24 | 9 | 37.5% |
| 2014/15 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% |
| 2013/14 | 20 | 6 | 30.0% |
| 2011/12 | 24 | 9 | 37.5% |
| 2010/11 | 21 | 5 | 23.8% |
| 2009/10 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% |
| 2008/09 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% |
| 2007/08 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% |
| 2006/07 | 26 | 9 | 34.6% |
| 2005/06 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% |
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2023 | Mansfield Town | 1–2 | Leyton Orient | A | ENG · League Two |
| 18 Apr 2023 | Ipswich Town | 2–1 | Port Vale | H | ENG · League One |
| 07 Apr 2023 | Crawley Town | 0–0 | Bradford City | D | ENG · League Two |
| 25 Mar 2023 | Grimsby Town | 1–1 | Walsall | D | ENG · League Two |
| 18 Mar 2023 | Lincoln City | 0–3 | Peterborough United | A | ENG · League One |
| 04 Mar 2023 | Stockport County | 0–0 | Doncaster Rovers | D | ENG · League Two |
| 25 Feb 2023 | Exeter City | 2–0 | Cambridge United | H | ENG · League One |
| 14 Feb 2023 | Sheffield Wednesday | 3–0 | Morecambe | H | ENG · League One |
| 11 Feb 2023 | Wycombe Wanderers | 3–2 | Derby County | H | ENG · League One |
| 04 Feb 2023 | Carlisle United | 0–1 | Harrogate Town | A | ENG · League Two |
| 14 Jan 2023 | Gillingham | 2–0 | Hartlepool United | H | ENG · League Two |
| 07 Jan 2023 | Salford City | 2–1 | Northampton Town | H | ENG · League Two |
| 30 Dec 2022 | Stevenage | 3–1 | Crawley Town | H | ENG · League Two |
| 17 Dec 2022 | Barrow | 0–1 | Swindon Town | A | ENG · League Two |
| 02 Dec 2022 | Bolton Wanderers | 1–1 | Bristol Rovers | D | ENG · League One |
| 12 Nov 2022 | Rochdale | 0–1 | Mansfield Town | A | ENG · League Two |
| 08 Nov 2022 | AFC Wimbledon | 2–0 | Leyton Orient | H | ENG · League Two |
| 01 Nov 2022 | Wycombe Wanderers | 2–2 | Port Vale | D | ENG · League One |
| 25 Oct 2022 | Walsall | 3–1 | Harrogate Town | H | ENG · League Two |
| 08 Oct 2022 | Lincoln City | 0–0 | Charlton Athletic | D | ENG · League One |
| 04 Oct 2022 | Ipswich Town | 3–0 | Cambridge United | H | ENG · League One |
| 24 Sep 2022 | Sutton United | 1–2 | Salford City | A | ENG · League Two |
| 13 Sep 2022 | Burton Albion | 0–2 | Portsmouth | A | ENG · League One |
| 20 Aug 2022 | Exeter City | 0–1 | Cheltenham Town | A | ENG · League One |
| 16 Aug 2022 | Swindon Town | 1–1 | Leyton Orient | D | ENG · League Two |
| 06 Aug 2022 | Fleetwood Town | 2–1 | Plymouth Argyle | H | ENG · League One |
| 30 Jul 2022 | Bristol Rovers | 1–2 | Forest Green Rovers | A | ENG · League One |
| 30 Apr 2022 | Swindon Town | 2–1 | Barrow | H | ENG · League Two |
| 18 Apr 2022 | Northampton Town | 3–0 | Harrogate Town | H | ENG · League Two |
| 15 Apr 2022 | Stevenage | 1–0 | Rochdale | H | ENG · League Two |
| 09 Apr 2022 | Sutton United | 1–0 | Leyton Orient | H | ENG · League Two |
| 05 Apr 2022 | Morecambe | 2–1 | Oxford United | H | ENG · League One |
| 02 Apr 2022 | Accrington Stanley | 4–4 | Cheltenham Town | D | ENG · League One |
| 12 Mar 2022 | Bolton Wanderers | 0–1 | Plymouth Argyle | A | ENG · League One |
| 08 Mar 2022 | Exeter City | 3–1 | Swindon Town | H | ENG · League Two |
| 26 Feb 2022 | AFC Wimbledon | 2–2 | Doncaster Rovers | D | ENG · League One |
| 12 Feb 2022 | Newport County | 3–3 | Oldham Athletic | D | ENG · League Two |
| 05 Feb 2022 | Crawley Town | 2–2 | Stevenage | D | ENG · League Two |
| 29 Jan 2022 | Wycombe Wanderers | 0–1 | Milton Keynes Dons | A | ENG · League One |
| 18 Jan 2022 | Sutton United | 3–2 | Colchester United | H | ENG · League Two |
| 15 Jan 2022 | Fleetwood Town | 1–0 | Rotherham United | H | ENG · League One |
| 12 Jan 2022 | Crewe Alexandra | 2–1 | Charlton Athletic | H | ENG · League One |
| 11 Dec 2021 | Hartlepool United | 0–0 | Scunthorpe United | D | ENG · League Two |
| 27 Nov 2021 | Cambridge United | 1–2 | Sunderland | A | ENG · League One |
| 20 Nov 2021 | Doncaster Rovers | 0–0 | Lincoln City | D | ENG · League One |
| 02 Nov 2021 | Portsmouth | 1–1 | Cheltenham Town | D | ENG · League One |
| 30 Oct 2021 | Plymouth Argyle | 2–1 | Ipswich Town | H | ENG · League One |
| 16 Oct 2021 | Northampton Town | 2–0 | Mansfield Town | H | ENG · League Two |
| 02 Oct 2021 | Bristol Rovers | 1–3 | Swindon Town | A | ENG · League Two |
| 28 Sep 2021 | Oxford United | 5–1 | Accrington Stanley | H | ENG · League One |