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Match official

Paul Armstrong

2000–2008 · 3 competitions
Also recorded as: Armstrong, P., P Armstrong, P. Armstrong
Matches 204
Draws 50
Draw % 24.5% +0.2 pts vs 24.3%
Comps 3
Luck or skill how this is worked out ›

Over 204 matches (Aug 2000 – May 2008), Paul Armstrong drew 50 where the draw model expected 57.1 from those particular fixtures — about 7 fewer, or 1.1 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.

As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 55.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.

By competition 3 competitions
Competition Matches Draws Draw %
ENG · League One 74 13 17.6%
ENG · League Two 72 20 27.8%
ENG · Championship 58 17 29.3%
By season 8 seasons
Season Matches Draws Draw %
2007/08 17 5 29.4%
2006/07 27 5 18.5%
2005/06 26 7 26.9%
2004/05 29 14 48.3%
2003/04 28 2 7.1%
2002/03 30 6 20.0%
2001/02 26 6 23.1%
2000/01 21 5 23.8%
Latest matches last 50

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