Mark Halsey
Over 375 matches (Aug 2000 – May 2013), Mark Halsey drew 86 where the draw model expected 97.2 from those particular fixtures — about 11 fewer, or 1.3 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 97.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| Competition | Matches | Draws | Draw % |
|---|---|---|---|
| ENG · Premier League | 265 | 58 | 21.9% |
| ENG · Championship | 62 | 19 | 30.6% |
| ENG · League One | 27 | 3 | 11.1% |
| ENG · League Two | 20 | 6 | 30.0% |
| ENG · National League | 1 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Season | Matches | Draws | Draw % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012/13 | 18 | 7 | 38.9% |
| 2011/12 | 30 | 6 | 20.0% |
| 2010/11 | 28 | 7 | 25.0% |
| 2009/10 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% |
| 2008/09 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% |
| 2007/08 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% |
| 2006/07 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% |
| 2005/06 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% |
| 2004/05 | 26 | 10 | 38.5% |
| 2003/04 | 32 | 5 | 15.6% |
| 2002/03 | 31 | 7 | 22.6% |
| 2001/02 | 30 | 4 | 13.3% |
| 2000/01 | 29 | 7 | 24.1% |
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 May 2013 | Manchester City | 2–3 | Norwich City | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 12 May 2013 | Fulham | 1–3 | Liverpool | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 20 Apr 2013 | Swansea City | 0–0 | Southampton | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 17 Mar 2013 | Wigan Athletic | 2–1 | Newcastle United | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 02 Mar 2013 | Sunderland | 2–2 | Fulham | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 10 Feb 2013 | Manchester United | 2–0 | Everton | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 30 Jan 2013 | Reading | 2–2 | Chelsea | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 12 Jan 2013 | Aston Villa | 0–1 | Southampton | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 01 Jan 2013 | Swansea City | 2–2 | Aston Villa | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 15 Dec 2012 | Stoke City | 1–1 | Everton | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 08 Dec 2012 | Sunderland | 1–3 | Chelsea | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 01 Dec 2012 | Reading | 3–4 | Manchester United | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 28 Nov 2012 | Wigan Athletic | 0–2 | Manchester City | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 05 Nov 2012 | West Bromwich Albion | 2–0 | Southampton | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 27 Oct 2012 | Stoke City | 0–0 | Sunderland | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 29 Sep 2012 | Fulham | 1–2 | Manchester City | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 23 Sep 2012 | Liverpool | 1–2 | Manchester United | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 01 Sep 2012 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1–1 | Norwich City | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 13 May 2012 | Swansea City | 1–0 | Liverpool | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 02 May 2012 | Chelsea | 0–2 | Newcastle United | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 28 Apr 2012 | Norwich City | 0–3 | Liverpool | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 21 Apr 2012 | Cardiff City | 1–1 | Leeds United | D | ENG · Championship |
| 15 Apr 2012 | Manchester United | 4–0 | Aston Villa | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 10 Apr 2012 | Portsmouth | 0–1 | Millwall | A | ENG · Championship |
| 07 Apr 2012 | Stoke City | 2–1 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 17 Mar 2012 | Fulham | 0–3 | Swansea City | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 10 Mar 2012 | Everton | 1–0 | Tottenham Hotspur | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 03 Mar 2012 | Liverpool | 1–2 | Arsenal | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 26 Feb 2012 | Sheffield Wednesday | 1–0 | Sheffield United | H | ENG · League One |
| 11 Feb 2012 | Leicester City | 2–1 | Cardiff City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 05 Feb 2012 | Newcastle United | 2–1 | Aston Villa | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 01 Feb 2012 | Fulham | 1–1 | West Bromwich Albion | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 21 Jan 2012 | Everton | 1–1 | Blackburn Rovers | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 03 Jan 2012 | Tottenham Hotspur | 1–0 | West Bromwich Albion | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 31 Dec 2011 | Chelsea | 1–3 | Aston Villa | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 26 Dec 2011 | Morecambe | 1–2 | Accrington Stanley | A | ENG · League Two |
| 21 Dec 2011 | Fulham | 0–5 | Manchester United | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 18 Dec 2011 | Portsmouth | 1–1 | Southampton | D | ENG · Championship |
| 26 Nov 2011 | Stoke City | 3–1 | Blackburn Rovers | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 21 Nov 2011 | Tottenham Hotspur | 2–0 | Aston Villa | H | ENG · Premier League |
| 06 Nov 2011 | Reading | 1–0 | Birmingham City | H | ENG · Championship |
| 29 Oct 2011 | Everton | 0–1 | Manchester United | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 22 Oct 2011 | Huddersfield Town | 3–1 | Preston North End | H | ENG · League One |
| 15 Oct 2011 | Watford | 0–2 | Crystal Palace | A | ENG · Championship |
| 01 Oct 2011 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1–2 | Newcastle United | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 11 Sep 2011 | Norwich City | 0–1 | West Bromwich Albion | A | ENG · Premier League |
| 27 Aug 2011 | Swansea City | 0–0 | Sunderland | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 14 Aug 2011 | Stoke City | 0–0 | Chelsea | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 22 May 2011 | Newcastle United | 3–3 | West Bromwich Albion | D | ENG · Premier League |
| 08 May 2011 | Stoke City | 3–1 | Arsenal | H | ENG · Premier League |