Watford
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 5 Oct 2026.
Over 557 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Watford drew 131 where the draw model expected 145.0 from those particular fixtures — about 14 fewer, or 1.4 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 145.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 01 Nov 2014 → 03 Mar 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 09 May 1999 → 31 Oct 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 09 Apr 2021 → 21 Sep 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 19 Apr 2014 → 16 Sep 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 02 Oct 2021 → 08 Jan 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 03 Jan 2009 → 10 Mar 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 23 Apr 1996 → 17 Sep 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 01 Apr 1995 → 29 Aug 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 10 Jan 1984 → 26 Jan 1985 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 04 Mar 2017 → 21 May 2017 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Championship | 1066 | 292 | 27.4% | 5 | 21 |
| FA Cup | 308 | 67 | 21.8% | 1 | 6 |
| Premier League | 304 | 66 | 21.7% | 2 | 13 |
| League Cup | 192 | 43 | 22.4% | 2 | 6 |
| League One | 92 | 35 | 38.0% | 2 | 8 |
| Club Friendlies | 23 | 6 | 26.1% | 2 | 4 |
| UEFA Europa League | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 6 |
| 2025 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 6 |
| 2024 | 51 | 15 | 29.4% | 11 |
| 2023 | 49 | 17 | 34.7% | 4 |
| 2022 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 10 |
| 2021 | 46 | 4 | 8.7% | 14 |
| 2020 | 44 | 13 | 29.5% | 10 |
| 2019 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 10 |
| 2018 | 46 | 11 | 23.9% | 6 |
| 2017 | 44 | 7 | 15.9% | 12 |
| 2016 | 46 | 9 | 19.6% | 8 |
| 2015 | 47 | 8 | 17.0% | 12 |
| 2014 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 14 |
| 2013 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 8 |
| 2012 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 9 |
| 2011 | 51 | 17 | 33.3% | 10 |
| 2010 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 9 |
| 2009 | 49 | 14 | 28.6% | 13 |
| 2008 | 54 | 18 | 33.3% | 7 |
| 2007 | 51 | 10 | 19.6% | 9 |
| 2006 | 42 | 15 | 35.7% | 10 |
| 2005 | 54 | 15 | 27.8% | 6 |
| 2004 | 53 | 18 | 34.0% | 10 |
| 2003 | 53 | 14 | 26.4% | 8 |
| 2002 | 49 | 10 | 20.4% | 7 |
| 2001 | 53 | 11 | 20.8% | 12 |
| 2000 | 47 | 9 | 19.2% | 10 |
| 1999 | 45 | 8 | 17.8% | 17 |
| 1998 | 51 | 20 | 39.2% | 7 |
| 1997 | 56 | 18 | 32.1% | 8 |
| 1996 | 55 | 22 | 40.0% | 13 |
| 1995 | 52 | 17 | 32.7% | 13 |
| 1994 | 53 | 13 | 24.5% | 11 |
| 1993 | 28 | 8 | 28.6% | 8 |
| 1992 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1991 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1990 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 1988 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 1987 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1986 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 2 |
| 1985 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1984 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 10 |
| 1983 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1982 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1981 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 6 |
| 1979 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1978 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 1977 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1976 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1975 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1974 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1973 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1972 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1971 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1970 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1969 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1968 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1967 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1966 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1965 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1964 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1963 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1962 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1960 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1959 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1958 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1957 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1954 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1953 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1952 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1951 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 9 | 5 | 55.6% | 2 |
| 1945 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1939 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1938 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1937 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1936 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1934 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1933 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1932 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1931 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1930 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1929 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1927 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1926 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1924 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1923 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1922 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1921 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1912 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1911 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1910 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1909 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1907 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1906 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1887 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1886 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:00 |
Watford
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.0% |
|
| Tue, 13 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 13 Oct 18:45 |
Cardiff City
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 11:30 |
Watford
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 30.3% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 14:00 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 17.4% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 12:30 |
Norwich City
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 22.8% |
|
| Tue, 03 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Nov 19:45 |
Watford
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 15:00 |
Watford
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.8% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.