What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 145 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Sweden drew 27 where the draw model expected 32.3 from those particular fixtures — about 5 fewer, or 1.1 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 33.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | 29 Mar 2011 → 12 Oct 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 18 Jun 2021 → 24 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 16 | 03 Jun 2013 → 04 Sep 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 20 Feb 2003 → 31 Mar 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 05 Sep 2020 → 05 Jun 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 09 Oct 1968 → 01 Nov 1969 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 12 | 03 Jul 1926 → 12 Jun 1927 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 16 Nov 2022 → 12 Oct 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 17 Feb 2001 → 07 Oct 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 28 Feb 1981 → 28 Oct 1981 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 558 | 124 | 22.2% | 0 | 13 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 149 | 23 | 15.4% | 2 | 10 |
| Nordic Championship | 141 | 26 | 18.4% | 1 | 3 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 122 | 27 | 22.1% | 2 | 7 |
| FIFA World Cup | 55 | 14 | 25.5% | 1 | 5 |
| UEFA Nations League | 25 | 4 | 16.0% | 0 | 6 |
| UEFA European Championship | 24 | 7 | 29.2% | 3 | 3 |
| King's Cup | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 1 | 2 |
| Olympic Games | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 1 | 3 |
| Joe Robbie Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Scania 100 Tournament | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Four Nations Tournament | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Lunar New Year Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Cyprus International Tournament | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 3 |
| 2025 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2024 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 7 |
| 2023 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 9 |
| 2022 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 2021 | 16 | 1 | 6.3% | 10 |
| 2020 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 2019 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2018 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 7 |
| 2017 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 5 |
| 2016 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 3 |
| 2015 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 6 |
| 2014 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 6 |
| 2013 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 10 |
| 2012 | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 11 |
| 2011 | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 10 |
| 2010 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2009 | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 9 |
| 2008 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 7 |
| 2007 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 5 |
| 2006 | 15 | 6 | 40.0% | 7 |
| 2005 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 8 |
| 2004 | 16 | 5 | 31.3% | 5 |
| 2003 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% | 11 |
| 2002 | 14 | 10 | 71.4% | 1 |
| 2001 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 11 |
| 2000 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 1999 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 5 |
| 1998 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1997 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 6 |
| 1996 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 8 |
| 1995 | 11 | 6 | 54.6% | 2 |
| 1994 | 19 | 5 | 26.3% | 6 |
| 1993 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1992 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 5 |
| 1991 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 6 |
| 1990 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 9 |
| 1989 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 1988 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 1987 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1986 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1985 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1984 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1983 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 7 |
| 1982 | 9 | 5 | 55.6% | 2 |
| 1981 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 11 |
| 1980 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 1979 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1978 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 1977 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 1976 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 1975 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1974 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 8 |
| 1973 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 1972 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1971 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1970 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1969 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 11 |
| 1968 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1967 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1966 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1965 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1964 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 1963 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 1961 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1960 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1959 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1958 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 1957 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1956 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1954 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 1953 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 5 |
| 1952 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 6 |
| 1951 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1950 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 8 |
| 1949 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1948 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1947 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1946 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1945 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1943 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1942 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1941 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1940 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1939 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1938 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 1937 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1936 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1935 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 1934 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1933 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1932 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 6 |
| 1931 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1930 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1929 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1928 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1927 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1926 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 9 |
| 1925 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1924 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 7 |
| 1923 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 1922 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1921 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 1920 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 1919 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 1918 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1917 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1916 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1915 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1914 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1913 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1912 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1911 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1910 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, 05 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Oct 18:45 | Romania | vs | Sweden | – / – / – | 20.8% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.