FC St. Pauli
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 431 matches (Feb 2015 – Sep 2026), FC St. Pauli drew 118 where the draw model expected 114.3 from those particular fixtures — about 4 more, or 0.4 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 115.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 03 Feb 2024 → 09 Aug 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 22 Feb 2010 → 12 Sep 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 29 Jan 2023 → 06 May 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 29 Oct 2024 → 26 Jan 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 30 Jul 2011 → 28 Oct 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 15 Mar 2021 → 25 Jul 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 10 Dec 2018 → 16 Mar 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 22 Aug 2008 → 10 Nov 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 16 Mar 2008 → 18 May 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 04 Aug 2007 → 21 Oct 2007 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 792 | 221 | 27.9% | 0 | 17 |
| Bundesliga | 204 | 48 | 23.5% | 4 | 11 |
| DFB-Pokal | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 1 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 0 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30 | 11 | 36.7% | 6 |
| 2025 | 41 | 13 | 31.7% | 6 |
| 2024 | 37 | 4 | 10.8% | 17 |
| 2023 | 37 | 12 | 32.4% | 14 |
| 2022 | 37 | 15 | 40.5% | 5 |
| 2021 | 42 | 7 | 16.7% | 11 |
| 2020 | 29 | 11 | 37.9% | 4 |
| 2019 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 8 |
| 2018 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 8 |
| 2017 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 8 |
| 2016 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 9 |
| 2015 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 9 |
| 2014 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2013 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2012 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2011 | 37 | 6 | 16.2% | 12 |
| 2010 | 35 | 3 | 8.6% | 16 |
| 2009 | 36 | 7 | 19.4% | 7 |
| 2008 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 11 |
| 2007 | 19 | 5 | 26.3% | 11 |
| 2006 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2003 | 17 | 7 | 41.2% | 4 |
| 2002 | 33 | 7 | 21.2% | 11 |
| 2001 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 8 |
| 2000 | 35 | 14 | 40.0% | 7 |
| 1999 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 6 |
| 1998 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 10 |
| 1997 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 7 |
| 1996 | 33 | 9 | 27.3% | 6 |
| 1995 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 6 |
| 1994 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 7 |
| 1993 | 19 | 7 | 36.8% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 13:30 |
FC St. Pauli
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% | ITL · Club Friendlies |
| Sun, 11 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 11 Oct 11:30 |
FC St. Pauli
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 18:30 |
Hannover 96
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Fri, 23 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 23 Oct 16:30 |
SV Darmstadt 98
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.9% |
|
| Sun, 01 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Nov 12:30 |
FC St. Pauli
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.0% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 08 Nov 12:30 |
1. FC Magdeburg
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.