What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 119 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Scotland drew 23 where the draw model expected 25.7 from those particular fixtures — about 3 fewer, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 27.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | 09 Nov 2017 → 19 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 08 Sep 2025 → 24 Jun 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 12 Oct 2012 → 15 Oct 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 06 Sep 2003 → 18 Aug 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 05 Jul 1972 → 17 Oct 1973 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 24 Mar 2007 → 17 Nov 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 29 Mar 1997 → 25 Mar 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 24 May 1995 → 29 May 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 15 Apr 1961 → 02 May 1962 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 21 Oct 1950 → 14 Nov 1951 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| British Home Championship | 263 | 56 | 21.3% | 0 | 3 |
| Friendly | 248 | 49 | 19.8% | 4 | 9 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 139 | 30 | 21.6% | 5 | 7 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 124 | 28 | 22.6% | 0 | 10 |
| UEFA Nations League | 26 | 4 | 15.4% | 1 | 5 |
| FIFA World Cup | 26 | 7 | 26.9% | 3 | 3 |
| UEFA European Championship | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 1 | 3 |
| Rous Cup | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Kirin Cup | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Brazil Independence Cup | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 | 1 |
| Nations Cup | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 5 |
| 2024 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 4 |
| 2023 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 2022 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 2021 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 8 |
| 2020 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 2019 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2018 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2017 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2016 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 2015 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2014 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 2013 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 2012 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2011 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 5 |
| 2010 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 2009 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2008 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 2007 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2006 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 2005 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 2004 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 6 |
| 2003 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2002 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 5 |
| 2001 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2000 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1999 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1998 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 1997 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 1996 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1995 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 6 |
| 1994 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1993 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1992 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 4 |
| 1991 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1990 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 1989 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1988 | 8 | 5 | 62.5% | 2 |
| 1987 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1986 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1985 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 1984 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1983 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 1982 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 4 |
| 1981 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1980 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1979 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1978 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 1977 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1976 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1975 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1974 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 7 |
| 1973 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 1972 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1971 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 1970 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1968 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1967 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1966 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1965 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 1964 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1963 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1962 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1960 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1959 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1958 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1957 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1956 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1954 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1953 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1952 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1951 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1950 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1949 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1948 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1947 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1946 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1939 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1938 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1937 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1936 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1935 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1934 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1933 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1932 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1931 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1930 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1929 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1928 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1927 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1926 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1924 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1923 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1922 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1921 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1920 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1914 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1913 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1912 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1911 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1910 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1909 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1908 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1907 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1906 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1905 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1904 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1903 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1902 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1901 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1900 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1899 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1898 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1897 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1896 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1895 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1894 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1893 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1892 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1891 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1890 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1889 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1888 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1887 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1886 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1885 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1884 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1883 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1882 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1881 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1880 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1879 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1878 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1877 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1876 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1875 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1874 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1873 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1872 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 18:45 | North Macedonia | vs | Scotland | – / – / – | 27.8% |
|
| Tue, 06 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 06 Oct 18:45 | Scotland | vs | Slovenia | – / – / – | 28.3% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.