Greenock Morton
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 493 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Greenock Morton drew 146 where the draw model expected 128.3 from those particular fixtures — about 18 more, or 1.8 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 122.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | 04 Apr 2009 → 21 Nov 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 18 | 10 Sep 2005 → 02 Jan 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 17 | 23 Feb 2013 → 27 Aug 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 16 | 26 Feb 2000 → 09 Sep 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 18 Nov 1995 → 16 Mar 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 14 | 21 Feb 2015 → 01 Aug 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 14 | 03 May 2014 → 25 Oct 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 05 Dec 2009 → 20 Mar 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 10 Apr 2004 → 04 Sep 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 22 Apr 2023 → 02 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish Championship | 856 | 234 | 27.3% | 5 | 32 |
| Scottish League One | 216 | 48 | 22.2% | 12 | 16 |
| Scottish League Cup | 79 | 11 | 13.9% | 4 | 6 |
| Scottish Cup | 69 | 15 | 21.7% | 1 | 4 |
| Scottish League Two | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 9 | 9 |
| Club Friendlies | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30 | 5 | 16.7% | 9 |
| 2025 | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 7 |
| 2024 | 46 | 13 | 28.3% | 7 |
| 2023 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 12 |
| 2022 | 41 | 13 | 31.7% | 7 |
| 2021 | 46 | 24 | 52.2% | 5 |
| 2020 | 24 | 10 | 41.7% | 5 |
| 2019 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 6 |
| 2018 | 47 | 14 | 29.8% | 9 |
| 2017 | 41 | 12 | 29.3% | 7 |
| 2016 | 48 | 12 | 25.0% | 10 |
| 2015 | 42 | 8 | 19.1% | 14 |
| 2014 | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 14 |
| 2013 | 43 | 5 | 11.6% | 17 |
| 2012 | 44 | 15 | 34.1% | 7 |
| 2011 | 44 | 10 | 22.7% | 7 |
| 2010 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 9 |
| 2009 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 23 |
| 2008 | 43 | 9 | 20.9% | 12 |
| 2007 | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 12 |
| 2006 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 8 |
| 2005 | 42 | 6 | 14.3% | 17 |
| 2004 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 13 |
| 2003 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 11 |
| 2002 | 39 | 13 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2001 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 10 |
| 2000 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% | 16 |
| 1999 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% | 10 |
| 1998 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 9 |
| 1997 | 36 | 7 | 19.4% | 7 |
| 1996 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 10 |
| 1995 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 8 |
| 1968 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:00 |
Arbroath
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 14:00 |
Greenock Morton
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.9% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 14:00 |
Greenock Morton
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.3% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 15:00 |
Partick Thistle
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 16.2% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 15:00 |
Greenock Morton
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.