Millwall
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 608 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Millwall drew 164 where the draw model expected 170.3 from those particular fixtures — about 6 fewer, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 162.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25 | 22 Feb 2025 → 30 Aug 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 21 Feb 2009 → 02 May 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 17 | 19 Apr 1997 → 18 Oct 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 16 | 16 Dec 2006 → 10 Mar 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 30 Aug 2008 → 15 Nov 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 07 Nov 2015 → 23 Jan 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 06 Feb 1999 → 21 Apr 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 10 Apr 2023 → 26 Aug 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 17 Sep 2016 → 19 Nov 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 05 May 2001 → 22 Sep 2001 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Championship | 1020 | 297 | 29.1% | 0 | 17 |
| League One | 506 | 120 | 23.7% | 4 | 17 |
| FA Cup | 320 | 83 | 25.9% | 1 | 7 |
| League Cup | 180 | 45 | 25.0% | 2 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 1 | 5 |
| UEFA Europa League | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 8 |
| 2025 | 58 | 11 | 19.0% | 25 |
| 2024 | 47 | 11 | 23.4% | 10 |
| 2023 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 11 |
| 2022 | 50 | 12 | 24.0% | 7 |
| 2021 | 54 | 16 | 29.6% | 9 |
| 2020 | 46 | 17 | 37.0% | 7 |
| 2019 | 52 | 19 | 36.5% | 7 |
| 2018 | 52 | 15 | 28.8% | 6 |
| 2017 | 53 | 18 | 34.0% | 6 |
| 2016 | 55 | 10 | 18.2% | 11 |
| 2015 | 52 | 13 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2014 | 50 | 16 | 32.0% | 5 |
| 2013 | 52 | 12 | 23.1% | 10 |
| 2012 | 53 | 14 | 26.4% | 9 |
| 2011 | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 6 |
| 2010 | 50 | 15 | 30.0% | 8 |
| 2009 | 54 | 14 | 25.9% | 17 |
| 2008 | 53 | 12 | 22.6% | 14 |
| 2007 | 48 | 7 | 14.6% | 13 |
| 2006 | 50 | 15 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 2005 | 52 | 17 | 32.7% | 9 |
| 2004 | 56 | 14 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2003 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 9 |
| 2002 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 6 |
| 2001 | 50 | 12 | 24.0% | 11 |
| 2000 | 53 | 12 | 22.6% | 9 |
| 1999 | 49 | 9 | 18.4% | 13 |
| 1998 | 49 | 18 | 36.7% | 7 |
| 1997 | 50 | 10 | 20.0% | 17 |
| 1996 | 53 | 15 | 28.3% | 9 |
| 1995 | 55 | 19 | 34.6% | 10 |
| 1994 | 51 | 18 | 35.3% | 10 |
| 1993 | 28 | 8 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 1992 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1991 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1990 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1988 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1987 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 2 |
| 1986 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1985 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1984 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1983 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1982 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1981 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1980 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 2 |
| 1979 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1978 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1977 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1976 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1975 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1974 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1973 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1972 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1971 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1970 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1969 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1968 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1966 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1965 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1964 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1963 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1962 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1960 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1959 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1957 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1956 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1955 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1954 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1953 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1952 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1949 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1948 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1947 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1939 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1938 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1937 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1936 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1934 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1933 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1932 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1931 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1930 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1929 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1928 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1927 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1926 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1924 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1923 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1922 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1921 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1920 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1915 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1914 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1913 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1912 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1911 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1910 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1909 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1908 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1907 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1906 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1905 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1904 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1903 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1901 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1900 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1897 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1896 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1895 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1887 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:00 |
Preston North End
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Tue, 13 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 13 Oct 18:45 |
Millwall
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.0% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 11:30 |
Millwall
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.1% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 11:30 |
Portsmouth
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.4% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 15:00 |
Millwall
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
| Tue, 03 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Nov 20:00 |
Birmingham City
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 15:00 |
West Bromwich Albion
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.7% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.