Middlesbrough
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 594 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Middlesbrough drew 142 where the draw model expected 163.5 from those particular fixtures — about 22 fewer, or 2.0 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 158.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | 09 Nov 2012 → 16 Feb 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 19 | 21 Oct 2017 → 27 Jan 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 18 | 08 Nov 2022 → 11 Mar 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 18 | 29 Mar 2014 → 20 Sep 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 16 | 21 Nov 2020 → 27 Jan 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 15 | 11 Nov 2023 → 13 Jan 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 14 | 21 Feb 2015 → 25 Apr 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 14 | 19 Apr 2008 → 18 Oct 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 07 Mar 2020 → 15 Sep 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 13 | 21 Apr 2012 → 29 Sep 2012 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Championship | 882 | 221 | 25.1% | 0 | 17 |
| Premier League | 532 | 158 | 29.7% | 3 | 15 |
| FA Cup | 345 | 95 | 27.5% | 1 | 5 |
| League Cup | 204 | 44 | 21.6% | 3 | 8 |
| UEFA Europa League | 25 | 4 | 16.0% | 10 | 10 |
| Club Friendlies | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 0 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37 | 12 | 32.4% | 9 |
| 2025 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 12 |
| 2024 | 50 | 13 | 26.0% | 8 |
| 2023 | 52 | 6 | 11.5% | 12 |
| 2022 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 6 |
| 2021 | 52 | 10 | 19.2% | 11 |
| 2020 | 46 | 12 | 26.1% | 13 |
| 2019 | 50 | 15 | 30.0% | 12 |
| 2018 | 53 | 16 | 30.2% | 5 |
| 2017 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 14 |
| 2016 | 47 | 13 | 27.7% | 12 |
| 2015 | 54 | 9 | 16.7% | 14 |
| 2014 | 51 | 16 | 31.4% | 18 |
| 2013 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 9 |
| 2012 | 55 | 11 | 20.0% | 13 |
| 2011 | 51 | 17 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2010 | 48 | 12 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 2009 | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 6 |
| 2008 | 45 | 14 | 31.1% | 14 |
| 2007 | 47 | 15 | 31.9% | 6 |
| 2006 | 54 | 12 | 22.2% | 11 |
| 2005 | 52 | 16 | 30.8% | 8 |
| 2004 | 57 | 10 | 17.5% | 12 |
| 2003 | 40 | 14 | 35.0% | 7 |
| 2002 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 9 |
| 2001 | 41 | 15 | 36.6% | 8 |
| 2000 | 43 | 14 | 32.6% | 9 |
| 1999 | 44 | 11 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 1998 | 51 | 15 | 29.4% | 8 |
| 1997 | 59 | 14 | 23.7% | 10 |
| 1996 | 44 | 11 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 1995 | 50 | 16 | 32.0% | 7 |
| 1994 | 54 | 13 | 24.1% | 12 |
| 1993 | 29 | 10 | 34.5% | 6 |
| 1992 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1991 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1990 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1989 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 1 |
| 1987 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1986 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1985 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1984 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1983 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1982 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1981 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1980 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1979 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1978 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1977 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1976 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1975 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1974 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1973 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1972 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1971 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1969 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1968 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1967 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1966 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1964 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1963 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1961 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1960 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1959 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1956 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1954 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1952 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1951 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1950 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1948 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1947 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1946 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 1939 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1938 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1937 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1936 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1935 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1934 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1933 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1932 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1931 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1930 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1929 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1928 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1927 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1926 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1924 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1923 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1922 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1921 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1920 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1915 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1914 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1913 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1912 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1911 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1910 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1909 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1907 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1906 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1905 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1904 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1902 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1901 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1895 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1894 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1893 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1892 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1888 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1887 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1886 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1885 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1884 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1883 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:00 |
Middlesbrough
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Tue, 13 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 13 Oct 19:00 |
Stoke City
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 11:30 |
Middlesbrough
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.5% |
|
| Fri, 23 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 23 Oct 19:00 |
Bolton Wanderers
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 15:00 |
Middlesbrough
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.0% |
|
| Wed, 04 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 04 Nov 19:45 |
Wrexham
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 15:00 |
Watford
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.9% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.