Holstein Kiel
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 438 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Holstein Kiel drew 124 where the draw model expected 114.6 from those particular fixtures — about 9 more, or 1.0 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 117.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 02 Apr 2023 → 30 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 20 Oct 2024 → 18 Jan 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 04 Aug 2017 → 21 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 23 Jan 2022 → 10 Apr 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 10 Apr 2026 → 29 Jul 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 26 Apr 2025 → 30 Aug 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 01 May 2021 → 01 Aug 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 09 Mar 2024 → 05 May 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 09 May 2015 → 22 Aug 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 11 Nov 2023 → 28 Jan 2024 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 278 | 78 | 28.1% | 0 | 17 |
| 3. Liga | 190 | 64 | 33.7% | 5 | 7 |
| Bundesliga | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 4 | 12 |
| DFB-Pokal | 32 | 8 | 25.0% | 1 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30 | 8 | 26.7% | 9 |
| 2025 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 9 |
| 2024 | 34 | 5 | 14.7% | 10 |
| 2023 | 36 | 6 | 16.7% | 18 |
| 2022 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 10 |
| 2021 | 45 | 13 | 28.9% | 9 |
| 2020 | 31 | 9 | 29.0% | 5 |
| 2019 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 6 |
| 2018 | 36 | 14 | 38.9% | 5 |
| 2017 | 39 | 13 | 33.3% | 11 |
| 2016 | 36 | 13 | 36.1% | 6 |
| 2015 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 8 |
| 2014 | 40 | 15 | 37.5% | 5 |
| 2013 | 21 | 9 | 42.9% | 5 |
| 2012 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2011 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2010 | 18 | 7 | 38.9% | 4 |
| 2009 | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2008 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2007 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 09 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 09 Oct 16:30 |
Eintracht Braunschweig
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Fri, 16 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 16 Oct 16:30 |
Holstein Kiel
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 25 Oct 12:30 |
Holstein Kiel
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 28 Oct 19:45 |
Holstein Kiel
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 19.2% |
|
| Sun, 01 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Nov 12:30 |
Greuther Fürth
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 12:00 |
Holstein Kiel
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 26.9% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.