Heart of Midlothian
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 533 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Heart of Midlothian drew 124 where the draw model expected 123.8 from those particular fixtures — about 0 more, or 0.0 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 123.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 09 Sep 2000 → 23 Dec 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 03 May 1997 → 06 Dec 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 16 | 10 Jan 2015 → 25 Apr 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 11 Sep 2010 → 14 Dec 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 13 May 2026 → 15 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 01 Feb 2023 → 07 May 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 30 Oct 2021 → 29 Jan 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 07 May 2005 → 24 Sep 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 12 | 26 Apr 2025 → 10 Aug 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 22 Oct 2023 → 27 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish Premiership | 1127 | 275 | 24.4% | 0 | 17 |
| Scottish League Cup | 80 | 17 | 21.3% | 2 | 5 |
| Scottish Cup | 73 | 18 | 24.7% | 0 | 4 |
| Scottish Championship | 63 | 10 | 15.9% | 2 | 16 |
| UEFA Europa League | 50 | 10 | 20.0% | 1 | 5 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 1 | 4 |
| UEFA Conference League | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 0 | 6 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 0 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 3 |
| UEFA Champions League | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 2 | 2 |
| FA Cup | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32 | 5 | 15.6% | 13 |
| 2025 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 12 |
| 2024 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 9 |
| 2023 | 46 | 8 | 17.4% | 13 |
| 2022 | 48 | 10 | 20.8% | 10 |
| 2021 | 44 | 12 | 27.3% | 9 |
| 2020 | 28 | 7 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2019 | 51 | 14 | 27.5% | 8 |
| 2018 | 47 | 8 | 17.0% | 8 |
| 2017 | 47 | 16 | 34.0% | 8 |
| 2016 | 48 | 14 | 29.2% | 10 |
| 2015 | 45 | 9 | 20.0% | 16 |
| 2014 | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 8 |
| 2013 | 43 | 11 | 25.6% | 7 |
| 2012 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 7 |
| 2011 | 47 | 14 | 29.8% | 9 |
| 2010 | 42 | 7 | 16.7% | 14 |
| 2009 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 7 |
| 2008 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 9 |
| 2007 | 41 | 8 | 19.5% | 11 |
| 2006 | 53 | 13 | 24.5% | 9 |
| 2005 | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 13 |
| 2004 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 7 |
| 2003 | 41 | 8 | 19.5% | 9 |
| 2002 | 44 | 8 | 18.2% | 10 |
| 2001 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 7 |
| 2000 | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 17 |
| 1999 | 33 | 9 | 27.3% | 5 |
| 1998 | 42 | 15 | 35.7% | 7 |
| 1997 | 35 | 5 | 14.3% | 17 |
| 1996 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 10 |
| 1995 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 8 |
| 1994 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 10 |
| 1993 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1992 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1990 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1988 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1986 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1976 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1965 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1961 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1960 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1958 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1886 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.