Hamburger SV
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 5 Oct 2026.
Over 440 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Hamburger SV drew 115 where the draw model expected 108.5 from those particular fixtures — about 6 more, or 0.7 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 114.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | 07 Dec 2008 → 19 Apr 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 28 Jan 2006 → 13 May 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 15 | 07 Apr 2018 → 23 Sep 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 27 Oct 2010 → 19 Feb 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 07 Nov 2004 → 19 Mar 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 14 Feb 2004 → 08 May 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 19 Apr 2002 → 26 Oct 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 11 Nov 2000 → 04 Mar 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 12 | 11 May 1996 → 21 Sep 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 18 Jul 2026 → 04 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 888 | 241 | 27.1% | 4 | 17 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 238 | 66 | 27.7% | 4 | 18 |
| UEFA Europa League | 124 | 20 | 16.1% | 1 | 14 |
| DFB-Pokal | 54 | 16 | 29.6% | 1 | 5 |
| UEFA Champions League | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 6 | 9 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 4 | 7 |
| Club Friendlies | 15 | 1 | 6.7% | 6 | 6 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 6 |
| UEFA Super Cup | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30 | 7 | 23.3% | 11 |
| 2025 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 5 |
| 2024 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 6 |
| 2023 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 6 |
| 2022 | 39 | 7 | 18.0% | 11 |
| 2021 | 41 | 18 | 43.9% | 4 |
| 2020 | 32 | 7 | 21.9% | 10 |
| 2019 | 39 | 13 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2018 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 15 |
| 2017 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 8 |
| 2016 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 8 |
| 2015 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2014 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 7 |
| 2013 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 7 |
| 2012 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 6 |
| 2011 | 37 | 14 | 37.8% | 7 |
| 2010 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 9 |
| 2009 | 55 | 12 | 21.8% | 17 |
| 2008 | 48 | 12 | 25.0% | 11 |
| 2007 | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 6 |
| 2006 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 17 |
| 2005 | 44 | 8 | 18.2% | 9 |
| 2004 | 34 | 3 | 8.8% | 13 |
| 2003 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2002 | 33 | 9 | 27.3% | 13 |
| 2001 | 34 | 13 | 38.2% | 6 |
| 2000 | 45 | 11 | 24.4% | 7 |
| 1999 | 33 | 12 | 36.4% | 6 |
| 1998 | 32 | 12 | 37.5% | 5 |
| 1997 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 6 |
| 1996 | 40 | 12 | 30.0% | 12 |
| 1995 | 34 | 13 | 38.2% | 5 |
| 1994 | 31 | 9 | 29.0% | 8 |
| 1993 | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 8 |
| 1991 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1989 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1987 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1985 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1983 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 2 |
| 1982 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1981 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 7 |
| 1980 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 1979 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1977 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1976 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1975 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1974 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1971 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1968 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 8 |
| 1967 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1964 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1963 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1960 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 13:30 |
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.5% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 13:30 |
Hamburger SV
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.5% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 13:30 |
SC Paderborn 07
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.8% |
|
| Tue, 27 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 27 Oct 17:00 |
Hamburger SV
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 19.2% |
|
| Sun, 01 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Nov 16:30 |
Eintracht Frankfurt
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 22.8% |
|
| Fri, 06 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 06 Nov 19:30 |
Hamburger SV
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Sat, 06 Feb 2027 | ||||||
| 06 Feb |
Hamburger SV
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.