Vitória de Guimarães
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 447 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Vitória de Guimarães drew 105 where the draw model expected 111.4 from those particular fixtures — about 6 fewer, or 0.7 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 112.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 04 Nov 2017 → 24 Feb 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 07 Apr 2023 → 17 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 19 Dec 1999 → 02 Apr 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 24 Mar 1996 → 15 Sep 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 17 Apr 2024 → 21 Sep 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 23 Jan 2022 → 15 Apr 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 12 | 19 Mar 2017 → 19 Aug 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 12 | 10 May 2003 → 17 Oct 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 25 Sep 2021 → 17 Dec 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 21 Feb 2021 → 30 Apr 2021 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 1033 | 246 | 23.8% | 0 | 15 |
| UEFA Europa League | 72 | 16 | 22.2% | 0 | 6 |
| Taça de Portugal | 17 | 1 | 5.9% | 3 | 6 |
| UEFA Conference League | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 1 | 3 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| UEFA Champions League | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25 | 4 | 16.0% | 9 |
| 2025 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 10 |
| 2024 | 47 | 12 | 25.5% | 12 |
| 2023 | 39 | 5 | 12.8% | 14 |
| 2022 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 12 |
| 2021 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 11 |
| 2020 | 31 | 6 | 19.4% | 9 |
| 2019 | 46 | 12 | 26.1% | 8 |
| 2018 | 32 | 6 | 18.8% | 9 |
| 2017 | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 12 |
| 2016 | 35 | 12 | 34.3% | 4 |
| 2015 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 7 |
| 2014 | 30 | 7 | 23.3% | 6 |
| 2013 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 10 |
| 2012 | 29 | 4 | 13.8% | 9 |
| 2011 | 33 | 6 | 18.2% | 9 |
| 2010 | 31 | 8 | 25.8% | 6 |
| 2009 | 33 | 7 | 21.2% | 9 |
| 2008 | 32 | 11 | 34.4% | 6 |
| 2007 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 6 |
| 2006 | 18 | 8 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 2005 | 41 | 8 | 19.5% | 7 |
| 2004 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 7 |
| 2003 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 12 |
| 2002 | 33 | 7 | 21.2% | 8 |
| 2001 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 9 |
| 2000 | 34 | 5 | 14.7% | 13 |
| 1999 | 33 | 7 | 21.2% | 5 |
| 1998 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 7 |
| 1997 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 9 |
| 1996 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% | 13 |
| 1995 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 7 |
| 1994 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 4 |
| 1992 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1990 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1986 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 1983 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1969 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 11 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 11 Oct 17:00 |
SL Benfica
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 14.2% |
|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 18 Oct 14:00 | ACDR Lamelas | vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.0% |
|
| Fri, 23 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 23 Oct 19:45 |
Vitória de Guimarães
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 26.7% |
|
| Mon, 02 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 02 Nov 20:15 |
Gil Vicente
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.3% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 08 Nov 18:00 |
Vitória de Guimarães
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 17.3% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.