☆
· POR · Taça de Portugal
Team ☆
all results ›
POR · Club
Penafiel
FC Penafiel
Played
111
Draw %
20.7%
No-draw N
2
Max streak
11
28 Nov 2004 → 19 Feb 2005
Avg top run
6.5
top 10
Draw debt E
0.44
p50
24.0%
p100
21.0%
Draw score
0.182
rank #864
Draws
23
Team strength · Elo
all ratings ›
Rating
1,492
everyone starts at 1500
Peak
1,630
reached 29 Aug 2004
Rank
#5,384
of 14,598 clubs
Matches rated
111
last 19 Sep 2026
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 15 Oct 2026.
Recent form · draws highlighted
Luck or skill
how this is worked out ›
Over 111 matches (Aug 2004 – Sep 2026), Penafiel drew 23 where the draw model expected 27.8 from those particular fixtures — about 5 fewer, or 1.1 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 27.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
Longest no-draw runs
all on the records page ›
1 11
03 Apr 2005 → 12 Sep 2005
2 11
28 Nov 2004 → 19 Feb 2005
3 7
04 Oct 2014 → 13 Dec 2014
4 7
26 Sep 2004 → 13 Nov 2004
5 6
08 Feb 2015 → 15 Mar 2015
6 6
04 Dec 2005 → 15 Jan 2006
7 5
17 Aug 2014 → 20 Sep 2014
8 5
29 Jan 2006 → 26 Feb 2006
9 4
15 Apr 2006 → 07 May 2006
10 3
09 May 2015 → 22 May 2015
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 03 Apr 2005 → 12 Sep 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 28 Nov 2004 → 19 Feb 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 7 | 04 Oct 2014 → 13 Dec 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 7 | 26 Sep 2004 → 13 Nov 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 6 | 08 Feb 2015 → 15 Mar 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 6 | 04 Dec 2005 → 15 Jan 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 5 | 17 Aug 2014 → 20 Sep 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 29 Jan 2006 → 26 Feb 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 15 Apr 2006 → 07 May 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 3 | 09 May 2015 → 22 May 2015 | ▸ matches |
By competition (all-time)
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 102 | 20 | 19.6% | 3 | 11 |
| Taça de Portugal | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 1 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
By calendar year
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2024 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2023 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2022 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2021 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2015 | 20 | 5 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2014 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 7 |
| 2006 | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 5 |
| 2005 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% | 11 |
| 2004 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 7 |
Matches
all results ›
111 matches · page 1 / 3
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Upcoming fixtures
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| ☆ 17 Oct 19:00 |
Penafiel
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vs |
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– / – / – | 20.8% |
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Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.