Forfar Athletic
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 475 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Forfar Athletic drew 117 where the draw model expected 111.6 from those particular fixtures — about 5 more, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 103.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | 03 Jan 2015 → 25 Aug 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 23 | 17 Sep 2005 → 11 Mar 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 20 | 17 Feb 2007 → 22 Sep 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 17 | 07 Sep 2002 → 18 Jan 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 16 | 06 Oct 2018 → 26 Jan 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 16 | 04 Nov 2017 → 17 Feb 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 16 | 25 Oct 2008 → 07 Mar 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 15 | 10 Mar 2012 → 15 Sep 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 14 | 18 Dec 2012 → 02 Mar 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 14 | 22 Jan 2000 → 08 Apr 2000 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish League One | 662 | 139 | 21.0% | 8 | 22 |
| Scottish League Two | 369 | 108 | 29.3% | 4 | 14 |
| Scottish League Cup | 67 | 8 | 11.9% | 4 | 5 |
| Scottish Cup | 61 | 17 | 27.9% | 2 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32 | 9 | 28.1% | 6 |
| 2025 | 44 | 12 | 27.3% | 7 |
| 2024 | 42 | 13 | 31.0% | 10 |
| 2023 | 43 | 14 | 32.6% | 8 |
| 2022 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 6 |
| 2021 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 11 |
| 2020 | 22 | 6 | 27.3% | 6 |
| 2019 | 43 | 6 | 14.0% | 11 |
| 2018 | 41 | 6 | 14.6% | 12 |
| 2017 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 10 |
| 2016 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 12 |
| 2015 | 42 | 7 | 16.7% | 24 |
| 2014 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 5 |
| 2013 | 42 | 7 | 16.7% | 11 |
| 2012 | 43 | 8 | 18.6% | 15 |
| 2011 | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 8 |
| 2010 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 9 |
| 2009 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 8 |
| 2008 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 8 |
| 2007 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 20 |
| 2006 | 39 | 7 | 18.0% | 9 |
| 2005 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 14 |
| 2004 | 40 | 7 | 17.5% | 11 |
| 2003 | 43 | 17 | 39.5% | 5 |
| 2002 | 41 | 6 | 14.6% | 14 |
| 2001 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 11 |
| 2000 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 14 |
| 1999 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 9 |
| 1998 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 7 |
| 1997 | 18 | 6 | 33.3% | 10 |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.