What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 143 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), Croatia drew 34 where the draw model expected 30.6 from those particular fixtures — about 3 more, or 0.7 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 33.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 22 Apr 1998 → 10 Mar 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 12 Oct 2025 → 29 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 31 May 2014 → 12 Nov 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 12 Aug 2009 → 23 May 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 15 Oct 2018 → 06 Sep 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 12 Oct 2012 → 14 Aug 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 22 Aug 2007 → 06 Feb 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 29 Mar 2003 → 11 Oct 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 23 Mar 2018 → 26 Jun 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 20 Mar 2025 → 08 Sep 2025 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 146 | 39 | 26.7% | 4 | 5 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 80 | 21 | 26.3% | 3 | 7 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 78 | 17 | 21.8% | 6 | 9 |
| FIFA World Cup | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 4 | 7 |
| UEFA Nations League | 28 | 5 | 17.9% | 2 | 6 |
| UEFA European Championship | 25 | 8 | 32.0% | 0 | 4 |
| Korea Cup | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 0 | 1 |
| Kirin Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Lunar New Year Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| King Hassan II Tournament | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| FIFA Series | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 2024 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 4 |
| 2023 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2022 | 16 | 6 | 37.5% | 5 |
| 2021 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2020 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 2019 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2018 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 7 |
| 2017 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 2016 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 4 |
| 2015 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2014 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 10 |
| 2013 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 6 |
| 2012 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 3 |
| 2011 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 5 |
| 2010 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 2009 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 2008 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 3 |
| 2007 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 7 |
| 2006 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 4 |
| 2005 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2004 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 4 |
| 2003 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 2002 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 5 |
| 2001 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 3 |
| 2000 | 7 | 5 | 71.4% | 2 |
| 1999 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% | 2 |
| 1998 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 13 |
| 1997 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 4 |
| 1996 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 5 |
| 1995 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1994 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1993 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1992 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1991 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1990 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1956 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1950 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1944 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1943 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1942 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1941 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1940 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 16:00 | Croatia | vs | England | – / – / – | 23.4% |
|
| Tue, 06 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 06 Oct 18:45 | Croatia | vs | Spain | – / – / – | 19.5% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.