Carlisle United
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 578 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Carlisle United drew 157 where the draw model expected 158.5 from those particular fixtures — about 2 fewer, or 0.1 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 155.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30 | 13 Sep 2014 → 07 Mar 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 19 | 14 Mar 1998 → 08 Sep 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 17 | 29 Mar 2024 → 01 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 17 | 26 Nov 2013 → 22 Feb 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 29 Dec 2023 → 16 Mar 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 15 | 27 Sep 2003 → 26 Dec 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 15 | 15 Jan 1994 → 09 Apr 1994 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 14 Aug 2018 → 20 Oct 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 23 Mar 1996 → 20 Aug 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 23 Aug 2025 → 18 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League Two | 903 | 249 | 27.6% | 0 | 29 |
| League One | 506 | 130 | 25.7% | 7 | 15 |
| FA Cup | 244 | 50 | 20.5% | 1 | 5 |
| League Cup | 150 | 31 | 20.7% | 1 | 5 |
| National League | 59 | 12 | 20.3% | 4 | 12 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 8 |
| 2025 | 51 | 11 | 21.6% | 12 |
| 2024 | 46 | 8 | 17.4% | 17 |
| 2023 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 7 |
| 2022 | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 9 |
| 2021 | 50 | 16 | 32.0% | 6 |
| 2020 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 9 |
| 2019 | 50 | 13 | 26.0% | 6 |
| 2018 | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 13 |
| 2017 | 53 | 15 | 28.3% | 8 |
| 2016 | 54 | 22 | 40.7% | 8 |
| 2015 | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 12 |
| 2014 | 49 | 9 | 18.4% | 18 |
| 2013 | 50 | 16 | 32.0% | 7 |
| 2012 | 52 | 12 | 23.1% | 9 |
| 2011 | 55 | 14 | 25.5% | 8 |
| 2010 | 47 | 12 | 25.5% | 6 |
| 2009 | 51 | 18 | 35.3% | 6 |
| 2008 | 53 | 10 | 18.9% | 8 |
| 2007 | 46 | 12 | 26.1% | 8 |
| 2006 | 50 | 13 | 26.0% | 9 |
| 2005 | 26 | 5 | 19.2% | 8 |
| 2004 | 25 | 8 | 32.0% | 5 |
| 2003 | 48 | 8 | 16.7% | 15 |
| 2002 | 51 | 14 | 27.5% | 10 |
| 2001 | 52 | 19 | 36.5% | 5 |
| 2000 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 7 |
| 1999 | 51 | 17 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1998 | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 19 |
| 1997 | 52 | 10 | 19.2% | 9 |
| 1996 | 55 | 13 | 23.6% | 13 |
| 1995 | 48 | 15 | 31.3% | 11 |
| 1994 | 51 | 8 | 15.7% | 15 |
| 1993 | 25 | 8 | 32.0% | 9 |
| 1992 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1991 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1990 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1988 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1986 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1985 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1983 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1982 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1981 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1980 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 2 |
| 1979 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1978 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1977 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1976 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1975 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1974 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1973 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1972 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1971 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1969 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 3 |
| 1968 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 1965 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1964 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1963 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1962 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1961 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1960 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1959 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1957 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1954 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1953 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1952 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1950 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1945 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1938 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1937 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1936 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1934 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1933 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1932 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1931 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1929 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1927 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1926 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1910 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1909 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 11:30 |
Carlisle United
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 14:00 |
Solihull Moors
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 22.8% |
|
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 28 Oct 19:45 |
Carlisle United
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.5% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 15:00 |
Altrincham
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.9% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.