What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 108 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Bulgaria drew 30 where the draw model expected 22.5 from those particular fixtures — about 7 more, or 1.8 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 25.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 25 Mar 2016 → 07 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 13 Jun 1996 → 11 Oct 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 29 Nov 1978 → 23 Dec 1979 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 10 Jun 2025 → 01 Jun 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 26 Aug 1992 → 28 Apr 1993 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 01 Apr 1987 → 23 Mar 1988 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 18 Nov 1973 → 01 Jun 1974 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 23 Mar 1983 → 21 Dec 1983 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 01 Jun 1966 → 11 Jun 1967 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 12 Aug 2009 → 19 May 2010 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 351 | 102 | 29.1% | 0 | 10 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 143 | 29 | 20.3% | 6 | 9 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 130 | 33 | 25.4% | 0 | 6 |
| Balkan Cup | 41 | 4 | 9.8% | 0 | 8 |
| UEFA Nations League | 29 | 11 | 37.9% | 1 | 4 |
| FIFA World Cup | 26 | 8 | 30.8% | 2 | 3 |
| UEFA European Championship | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 | 3 |
| Kirin Cup | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| FIFA Series | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Cyprus International Tournament | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Olympic Games | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Lunar New Year Cup | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Kirin Challenge Cup | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 2024 | 10 | 6 | 60.0% | 2 |
| 2023 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 4 |
| 2022 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2021 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 4 |
| 2020 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2019 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2018 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2017 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 2016 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 2015 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 2014 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2013 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 2012 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 2011 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 2010 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 2009 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 2008 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 2007 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 5 |
| 2006 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2005 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 5 |
| 2004 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 5 |
| 2003 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2002 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2001 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2000 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 1999 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 1998 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 1997 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1996 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 7 |
| 1995 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1994 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 6 |
| 1993 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1992 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1991 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 1990 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1989 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1988 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1987 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1986 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 1985 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1984 | 8 | 5 | 62.5% | 2 |
| 1983 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 1982 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 1981 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 8 |
| 1980 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 1979 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 11 |
| 1978 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 1976 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 4 |
| 1975 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1974 | 17 | 6 | 35.3% | 9 |
| 1973 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 7 |
| 1972 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1971 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1970 | 11 | 6 | 54.6% | 3 |
| 1969 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1968 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1966 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1965 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 1964 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1962 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1961 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1960 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1959 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1958 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1957 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1956 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1955 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1954 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 2 |
| 1952 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1950 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1949 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1948 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1947 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1946 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1943 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1942 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1940 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1939 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1938 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1937 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1936 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1934 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1933 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1932 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1931 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1930 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1929 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1927 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1926 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1924 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, 06 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 06 Oct 18:45 | Luxembourg | vs | Bulgaria | – / – / – | 29.2% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.